A recent Victory Insights poll shows the four leading candidates—Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, Ben Butler, and Dan Green—statistically tied within the margin of error in Florida’s 9th Congressional District Republican primary, scheduled for August 18. The race remains fragmented after redistricting transformed the seat, previously held by Democrat Darren Soto, into a more competitive Republican target. Chalifoux brings prior general-election experience as the 2024 nominee, while Butler, a rancher, Martinez, a Cuban-American accountant, and Green, a military veteran, each draw from distinct regional and professional bases. With three days until voting, limited name recognition and no dominant endorsements have kept probabilities tightly clustered, leaving room for late shifts in turnout or campaign momentum to determine the nominee.