Short-term numerical weather prediction models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a mild winter day for Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C—well above the 12 °C seasonal average. This outlook reflects a transient warmer air mass advected by northerly flow and reduced cloud cover, rather than the stronger southerly winds that typically suppress highs. Ensemble spread and local topographic effects around the harbor create the narrow 40–41 % market-implied probabilities for those two outcomes, while cooler scenarios remain possible if frontal timing shifts. Updated model runs and official forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月3日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
8月3日のウェリントンの最高気温は？
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
14°C 12%
17°C 10%
新規
新規
2026/08/03
10°C or below
1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
12%
15°C
41%
16°C
41%
17°C
10%
18°C
2%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
1%
15°C 41%
16°C 41%
14°C 12%
17°C 10%
新規
新規
2026/08/03
10°C or below
$371 Vol.
1%
11°C
$53 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$111 Vol.
1%
13°C
$33 Vol.
2%
14°C
$148 Vol.
12%
15°C
$104 Vol.
41%
16°C
$119 Vol.
41%
17°C
$164 Vol.
10%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$47 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term numerical weather prediction models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a mild winter day for Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C—well above the 12 °C seasonal average. This outlook reflects a transient warmer air mass advected by northerly flow and reduced cloud cover, rather than the stronger southerly winds that typically suppress highs. Ensemble spread and local topographic effects around the harbor create the narrow 40–41 % market-implied probabilities for those two outcomes, while cooler scenarios remain possible if frontal timing shifts. Updated model runs and official forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
音量
$1,150終了日
2026/08/03マーケット開始日
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term numerical weather prediction models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a mild winter day for Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C—well above the 12 °C seasonal average. This outlook reflects a transient warmer air mass advected by northerly flow and reduced cloud cover, rather than the stronger southerly winds that typically suppress highs. Ensemble spread and local topographic effects around the harbor create the narrow 40–41 % market-implied probabilities for those two outcomes, while cooler scenarios remain possible if frontal timing shifts. Updated model runs and official forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$1,150終了日
2026/08/03マーケット開始日
Aug 1, 2026, 12:02 AM ETShort-term numerical weather prediction models from agencies including MetService New Zealand and international ensembles show a mild winter day for Wellington on August 3, with maximum temperatures most likely reaching 15–16 °C—well above the 12 °C seasonal average. This outlook reflects a transient warmer air mass advected by northerly flow and reduced cloud cover, rather than the stronger southerly winds that typically suppress highs. Ensemble spread and local topographic effects around the harbor create the narrow 40–41 % market-implied probabilities for those two outcomes, while cooler scenarios remain possible if frontal timing shifts. Updated model runs and official forecasts issued in the next 24–48 hours will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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