Recent Met Office guidance highlights a transitional pattern for early August, with residual high pressure giving way to more changeable Atlantic influences that introduce forecast spread in London’s nocturnal minimum. Ensemble model runs diverge on the timing and strength of any incoming fronts or cloud breaks, directly affecting radiative cooling rates and thus the precise overnight low. This uncertainty underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20 °C, each near 36 %, while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the prevailing above-average temperature baseline driven by warm sea-surface conditions. Short-range updates from the Met Office and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月3日のロンドンの最低気温は？
8月3日のロンドンの最低気温は？
22℃ 60%
23°C 60%
18℃ 37%
16°C 36%
新規
新規
2026/08/03
14℃以下
2%
15℃
10%
16°C
36%
17℃
36%
18℃
37%
19°C
36%
20℃
36%
21°C
32%
22℃
60%
23°C
60%
24℃以上
1%
22℃ 60%
23°C 60%
18℃ 37%
16°C 36%
新規
新規
2026/08/03
14℃以下
$5 Vol.
2%
15℃
$0 Vol.
10%
16°C
$0 Vol.
36%
17℃
$0 Vol.
36%
18℃
$0 Vol.
37%
19°C
$0 Vol.
36%
20℃
$0 Vol.
36%
21°C
$10 Vol.
32%
22℃
$37 Vol.
60%
23°C
$22 Vol.
60%
24℃以上
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance highlights a transitional pattern for early August, with residual high pressure giving way to more changeable Atlantic influences that introduce forecast spread in London’s nocturnal minimum. Ensemble model runs diverge on the timing and strength of any incoming fronts or cloud breaks, directly affecting radiative cooling rates and thus the precise overnight low. This uncertainty underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20 °C, each near 36 %, while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the prevailing above-average temperature baseline driven by warm sea-surface conditions. Short-range updates from the Met Office and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$74終了日
2026/08/03マーケット開始日
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Met Office guidance highlights a transitional pattern for early August, with residual high pressure giving way to more changeable Atlantic influences that introduce forecast spread in London’s nocturnal minimum. Ensemble model runs diverge on the timing and strength of any incoming fronts or cloud breaks, directly affecting radiative cooling rates and thus the precise overnight low. This uncertainty underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20 °C, each near 36 %, while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the prevailing above-average temperature baseline driven by warm sea-surface conditions. Short-range updates from the Met Office and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$74終了日
2026/08/03マーケット開始日
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent Met Office guidance highlights a transitional pattern for early August, with residual high pressure giving way to more changeable Atlantic influences that introduce forecast spread in London’s nocturnal minimum. Ensemble model runs diverge on the timing and strength of any incoming fronts or cloud breaks, directly affecting radiative cooling rates and thus the precise overnight low. This uncertainty underpins the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 18–20 °C, each near 36 %, while lower probabilities for 15 °C or below reflect the prevailing above-average temperature baseline driven by warm sea-surface conditions. Short-range updates from the Met Office and ECMWF over the next 48 hours will likely narrow the range ahead of resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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