Traders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日8月1日の北京の最高気温は？
8月1日の北京の最高気温は？
36°C 53%
35°C 34%
37°C 18%
38°C or higher 1.6%
$44,287 Vol.
$44,287 Vol.
2026/08/01
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
34%
36°C
53%
37°C
18%
38°C or higher
2%
36°C 53%
35°C 34%
37°C 18%
38°C or higher 1.6%
$44,287 Vol.
$44,287 Vol.
2026/08/01
28°C or below
$1,381 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,225 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,008 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,372 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,938 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$6,203 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$4,748 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$2,773 Vol.
34%
36°C
$5,650 Vol.
53%
37°C
$3,138 Vol.
18%
38°C or higher
$1,851 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
音量
$44,287終了日
2026/08/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
音量
$44,287終了日
2026/08/01マーケット開始日
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETTraders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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