Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top-two primary in California's 45th congressional district with 53.8% of the vote in June 2026, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters rate the November general election as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's modest D+1 to D+3 partisan voter index following redistricting and Tran's 2024 flip of the seat. Tran's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of a unified Republican challenge have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Potential shifts could arise from a broad national Republican surge in midterm voting patterns, significant changes in Asian-American turnout in Orange County precincts, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,236 Vol.
$30,236 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
91%
共和党
8%
$30,236 Vol.
$30,236 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$16,968 Vol.
91%
共和党
$13,267 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top-two primary in California's 45th congressional district with 53.8% of the vote in June 2026, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters rate the November general election as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's modest D+1 to D+3 partisan voter index following redistricting and Tran's 2024 flip of the seat. Tran's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of a unified Republican challenge have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Potential shifts could arise from a broad national Republican surge in midterm voting patterns, significant changes in Asian-American turnout in Orange County precincts, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$30,236終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top-two primary in California's 45th congressional district with 53.8% of the vote in June 2026, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters rate the November general election as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's modest D+1 to D+3 partisan voter index following redistricting and Tran's 2024 flip of the seat. Tran's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of a unified Republican challenge have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Potential shifts could arise from a broad national Republican surge in midterm voting patterns, significant changes in Asian-American turnout in Orange County precincts, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,236終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Derek Tran secured the top-two primary in California's 45th congressional district with 53.8% of the vote in June 2026, advancing against Republican Chuong Vo. Forecasters rate the November general election as Lean or Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's modest D+1 to D+3 partisan voter index following redistricting and Tran's 2024 flip of the seat. Tran's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of a unified Republican challenge have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Potential shifts could arise from a broad national Republican surge in midterm voting patterns, significant changes in Asian-American turnout in Orange County precincts, or unforeseen developments in the final weeks before Election Day on November 3, 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問