Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日反対 3〜6% 99.4%
はい <3％ 1.1%
はい 9～12% 1.0%
反対 15％以上 1.0%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
2026/08/29
はい 15％以上
1%
はい 12～15％
1%
はい 9～12%
1%
はい 6〜9%
1%
はい 3～6％
1%
はい <3％
1%
いいえ <3%
1%
反対 3〜6%
99%
ノー 6〜9％
1%
ノー 9〜12％
1%
ノー 12〜15%
1%
反対 15％以上
1%
反対 3〜6% 99.4%
はい <3％ 1.1%
はい 9～12% 1.0%
反対 15％以上 1.0%
$16,834 Vol.
$16,834 Vol.
2026/08/29
はい 15％以上
$827 Vol.
1%
はい 12～15％
$323 Vol.
1%
はい 9～12%
$2,594 Vol.
1%
はい 6〜9%
$315 Vol.
1%
はい 3～6％
$1,117 Vol.
1%
はい <3％
$382 Vol.
1%
いいえ <3%
$3,391 Vol.
1%
反対 3〜6%
$1,284 Vol.
99%
ノー 6〜9％
$424 Vol.
1%
ノー 9〜12％
$355 Vol.
1%
ノー 12〜15%
$297 Vol.
1%
反対 15％以上
$5,525 Vol.
1%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
音量
$16,834終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$16,834終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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