The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ペルトラ 3～6％ 31%
ペルトラ 6～9％ 16%
サリバン 3％未満 13%
ペルトラ <3％ 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/18
ペルトラ 15％以上
8%
ペルトラ 12〜15％
10%
ペルトラ 9〜12%
10%
ペルトラ 6～9％
16%
ペルトラ 3～6％
31%
ペルトラ <3％
13%
サリバン 3％未満
13%
サリバン 3〜6%
4%
サリバン 6～9％
7%
サリバン 9〜12%
7%
サリバン12％以上
6%
ペルトラ 3～6％ 31%
ペルトラ 6～9％ 16%
サリバン 3％未満 13%
ペルトラ <3％ 13%
新規
新規
2026/08/18
ペルトラ 15％以上
$195 Vol.
8%
ペルトラ 12〜15％
$159 Vol.
10%
ペルトラ 9〜12%
$159 Vol.
10%
ペルトラ 6～9％
$385 Vol.
16%
ペルトラ 3～6％
$951 Vol.
31%
ペルトラ <3％
$199 Vol.
13%
サリバン 3％未満
$159 Vol.
13%
サリバン 3〜6%
$343 Vol.
4%
サリバン 6～9％
$299 Vol.
7%
サリバン 9〜12%
$327 Vol.
7%
サリバン12％以上
$332 Vol.
6%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
音量
$3,505終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$3,505終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested August 18 top-four primary between incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan seeking a third term and Democratic challenger former Rep. Mary Peltola drives the current market positioning. Peltola’s substantial fundraising edge, reported at roughly $6.9 million since April compared with Sullivan’s $2 million, along with her grassroots and labor support, has kept the race tight according to recent surveys. A same-name Republican primary opponent cleared by the Alaska Supreme Court adds ballot confusion that could fragment Republican votes and compress victory margins. Alaska’s open primary system and upcoming ranked-choice general election further heighten uncertainty over exact spreads, with trader consensus reflecting these dynamics in the leading outcomes for modest Peltola advantages or other results.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問