High advance voting rates exceeding 21% of the electorate and stronger-than-usual midday participation in Reykjavík constituencies drove trader expectations toward 80–85% turnout in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks. Record early ballots, combined with widespread interest in the closely contested vote over fisheries sovereignty and economic ties, produced final participation of 82.5%—above the prior parliamentary election benchmark. Rural districts showed particularly elevated engagement amid the urban-rural divide, while the government’s accelerated timeline and national debate on EEA status reinforced broad mobilization without shifting focus to security concerns. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of elevated turnout in high-stakes constitutional-style referendums.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日80～85％ 98%
75〜80％ 48%
70〜75％ 39%
65〜70％ 24.5%
$1,464 Vol.
$1,464 Vol.
2026/08/29
45％未満
22%
45〜50％
15%
50〜55％
16%
55～60％
20%
60～65％
14%
65〜70％
25%
70〜75％
39%
75〜80％
48%
80～85％
75%
85％以上
2%
80～85％ 98%
75〜80％ 48%
70〜75％ 39%
65〜70％ 24.5%
$1,464 Vol.
$1,464 Vol.
2026/08/29
45％未満
$99 Vol.
22%
45〜50％
$60 Vol.
15%
50〜55％
$78 Vol.
16%
55～60％
$18 Vol.
20%
60～65％
$18 Vol.
14%
65〜70％
$9 Vol.
25%
70〜75％
$15 Vol.
39%
75〜80％
$78 Vol.
48%
80～85％
$255 Vol.
75%
85％以上
$836 Vol.
2%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High advance voting rates exceeding 21% of the electorate and stronger-than-usual midday participation in Reykjavík constituencies drove trader expectations toward 80–85% turnout in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks. Record early ballots, combined with widespread interest in the closely contested vote over fisheries sovereignty and economic ties, produced final participation of 82.5%—above the prior parliamentary election benchmark. Rural districts showed particularly elevated engagement amid the urban-rural divide, while the government’s accelerated timeline and national debate on EEA status reinforced broad mobilization without shifting focus to security concerns. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of elevated turnout in high-stakes constitutional-style referendums.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
音量
$1,464終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.High advance voting rates exceeding 21% of the electorate and stronger-than-usual midday participation in Reykjavík constituencies drove trader expectations toward 80–85% turnout in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks. Record early ballots, combined with widespread interest in the closely contested vote over fisheries sovereignty and economic ties, produced final participation of 82.5%—above the prior parliamentary election benchmark. Rural districts showed particularly elevated engagement amid the urban-rural divide, while the government’s accelerated timeline and national debate on EEA status reinforced broad mobilization without shifting focus to security concerns. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of elevated turnout in high-stakes constitutional-style referendums.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
音量
$1,464終了日
2026/08/29マーケット開始日
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...High advance voting rates exceeding 21% of the electorate and stronger-than-usual midday participation in Reykjavík constituencies drove trader expectations toward 80–85% turnout in Iceland’s August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession talks. Record early ballots, combined with widespread interest in the closely contested vote over fisheries sovereignty and economic ties, produced final participation of 82.5%—above the prior parliamentary election benchmark. Rural districts showed particularly elevated engagement amid the urban-rural divide, while the government’s accelerated timeline and national debate on EEA status reinforced broad mobilization without shifting focus to security concerns. This positioning aligns with historical patterns of elevated turnout in high-stakes constitutional-style referendums.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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