Jess Wilson, Liberal leader and opposition head since late 2025, leads the market at 64.5% as traders price in consistent Coalition advantages ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent DemosAU and other polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 55-45 on two-party preferred, with Wilson preferred premier over Ben Carroll by double-digit margins in several surveys. Carroll assumed the premiership in a late-July leadership change after Jacinta Allan resigned amid caucus pressure and weak results, launching a royal commission into construction sector issues as an immediate reset. A fragmented primary vote near 25-30% each for Labor, Coalition, and One Nation raises prospects of preference flows and a possible hung parliament, though Wilson’s platform on justice reforms, bail changes, housing supply, and cost-of-living measures has sustained momentum. Lower probabilities for Carroll, Gabrielle Williams, Warren Pickering, and others reflect these structural polling trends and limited recent catalysts for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ジェス・ウィルソン 65%
ベン・キャロル 21%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ 7.7%
デイビッド・サウスウィック 7.4%
$10,737 Vol.
$10,737 Vol.
ジェス・ウィルソン
65%
ベン・キャロル
21%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ
8%
デイビッド・サウスウィック
7%
ウォーレン・ピッカリング
7%
ジャシンタ・アラン
4%
ソニヤ・キルケニー
7%
スティーブ・ディモプロス
7%
エマ・キーリー
7%
ブラッド・バッティン
<1%
ジェームズ・ニューベリー
<1%
ダニー・オブライエン
<1%
エレン・サンデル
<1%
ジャクリン・サイムズ
<1%
サム・グロス
<1%
ジェス・ウィルソン 65%
ベン・キャロル 21%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ 7.7%
デイビッド・サウスウィック 7.4%
$10,737 Vol.
$10,737 Vol.
ジェス・ウィルソン
65%
ベン・キャロル
21%
ガブリエル・ウィリアムズ
8%
デイビッド・サウスウィック
7%
ウォーレン・ピッカリング
7%
ジャシンタ・アラン
4%
ソニヤ・キルケニー
7%
スティーブ・ディモプロス
7%
エマ・キーリー
7%
ブラッド・バッティン
<1%
ジェームズ・ニューベリー
<1%
ダニー・オブライエン
<1%
エレン・サンデル
<1%
ジャクリン・サイムズ
<1%
サム・グロス
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 27, 2026, 8:24 AM ET
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as Premier of Victoria as a result of the specified elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn-in as Premier following the specified elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Premier is appointed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Victoria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Jess Wilson, Liberal leader and opposition head since late 2025, leads the market at 64.5% as traders price in consistent Coalition advantages ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent DemosAU and other polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 55-45 on two-party preferred, with Wilson preferred premier over Ben Carroll by double-digit margins in several surveys. Carroll assumed the premiership in a late-July leadership change after Jacinta Allan resigned amid caucus pressure and weak results, launching a royal commission into construction sector issues as an immediate reset. A fragmented primary vote near 25-30% each for Labor, Coalition, and One Nation raises prospects of preference flows and a possible hung parliament, though Wilson’s platform on justice reforms, bail changes, housing supply, and cost-of-living measures has sustained momentum. Lower probabilities for Carroll, Gabrielle Williams, Warren Pickering, and others reflect these structural polling trends and limited recent catalysts for shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問