**One Nation leads the "Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place" market at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting its sustained position in recent statewide primary-vote polling ahead of the November 28, 2026, election.** Multiple August 2026 surveys (Resolve, DemosAU/Premier National, Roy Morgan, RedBridge/Accent) place One Nation between 22–27%, typically second or tied near the top alongside Labor (23–28%) and the Coalition (22–32%), with the Greens steady at 12–14% and other minors well below. This three-way primary split, driven by voter dissatisfaction with Labor after more than a decade in government and rising support for One Nation on issues such as crime, cost of living, and regional representation, positions One Nation as the most likely third-place finisher if it does not finish first or second. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation Victorian leadership in early August—have not materially altered the polling trajectory. One Nation continues to draw support from both major parties, particularly in outer-suburban and regional seats, while fielding candidates across most lower-house districts. The Greens and smaller parties (Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Libertarian) remain at single-digit or low-teens primary support and show no recent upward movement that would elevate them into third place. Labor’s low market price aligns with its frequent first- or second-place finishes in aggregates, while the Coalition’s positioning keeps it competitive for the top two spots. Trader consensus therefore treats One Nation as the clear frontrunner for third on primary votes, consistent with the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in live pricing three months before polling day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日One Nation 62%
Greens 13.2%
Labor 5.8%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$18,210 Vol.
$18,210 Vol.
2026/11/28
One Nation
62%
Greens
13%
Labor
6%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Liberal–National
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 62%
Greens 13.2%
Labor 5.8%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$18,210 Vol.
$18,210 Vol.
2026/11/28
One Nation
$5,842 Vol.
62%
Greens
$163 Vol.
13%
Labor
$6,507 Vol.
6%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,312 Vol.
<1%
Liberal–National
$1,209 Vol.
<1%
Animal Justice
$917 Vol.
<1%
Libertarian
$1,347 Vol.
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads the "Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place" market at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting its sustained position in recent statewide primary-vote polling ahead of the November 28, 2026, election.** Multiple August 2026 surveys (Resolve, DemosAU/Premier National, Roy Morgan, RedBridge/Accent) place One Nation between 22–27%, typically second or tied near the top alongside Labor (23–28%) and the Coalition (22–32%), with the Greens steady at 12–14% and other minors well below. This three-way primary split, driven by voter dissatisfaction with Labor after more than a decade in government and rising support for One Nation on issues such as crime, cost of living, and regional representation, positions One Nation as the most likely third-place finisher if it does not finish first or second.
Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation Victorian leadership in early August—have not materially altered the polling trajectory. One Nation continues to draw support from both major parties, particularly in outer-suburban and regional seats, while fielding candidates across most lower-house districts. The Greens and smaller parties (Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Libertarian) remain at single-digit or low-teens primary support and show no recent upward movement that would elevate them into third place. Labor’s low market price aligns with its frequent first- or second-place finishes in aggregates, while the Coalition’s positioning keeps it competitive for the top two spots.
Trader consensus therefore treats One Nation as the clear frontrunner for third on primary votes, consistent with the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in live pricing three months before polling day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
音量
$18,210終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads the "Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place" market at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting its sustained position in recent statewide primary-vote polling ahead of the November 28, 2026, election.** Multiple August 2026 surveys (Resolve, DemosAU/Premier National, Roy Morgan, RedBridge/Accent) place One Nation between 22–27%, typically second or tied near the top alongside Labor (23–28%) and the Coalition (22–32%), with the Greens steady at 12–14% and other minors well below. This three-way primary split, driven by voter dissatisfaction with Labor after more than a decade in government and rising support for One Nation on issues such as crime, cost of living, and regional representation, positions One Nation as the most likely third-place finisher if it does not finish first or second.
Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation Victorian leadership in early August—have not materially altered the polling trajectory. One Nation continues to draw support from both major parties, particularly in outer-suburban and regional seats, while fielding candidates across most lower-house districts. The Greens and smaller parties (Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Libertarian) remain at single-digit or low-teens primary support and show no recent upward movement that would elevate them into third place. Labor’s low market price aligns with its frequent first- or second-place finishes in aggregates, while the Coalition’s positioning keeps it competitive for the top two spots.
Trader consensus therefore treats One Nation as the clear frontrunner for third on primary votes, consistent with the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in live pricing three months before polling day.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
音量
$18,210終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**One Nation leads the "Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place" market at 61.5% implied probability, reflecting its sustained position in recent statewide primary-vote polling ahead of the November 28, 2026, election.** Multiple August 2026 surveys (Resolve, DemosAU/Premier National, Roy Morgan, RedBridge/Accent) place One Nation between 22–27%, typically second or tied near the top alongside Labor (23–28%) and the Coalition (22–32%), with the Greens steady at 12–14% and other minors well below. This three-way primary split, driven by voter dissatisfaction with Labor after more than a decade in government and rising support for One Nation on issues such as crime, cost of living, and regional representation, positions One Nation as the most likely third-place finisher if it does not finish first or second. Leadership transitions—Ben Carroll replacing Jacinta Allan as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering assuming the One Nation Victorian leadership in early August—have not materially altered the polling trajectory. One Nation continues to draw support from both major parties, particularly in outer-suburban and regional seats, while fielding candidates across most lower-house districts. The Greens and smaller parties (Legalise Cannabis, Animal Justice, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Libertarian) remain at single-digit or low-teens primary support and show no recent upward movement that would elevate them into third place. Labor’s low market price aligns with its frequent first- or second-place finishes in aggregates, while the Coalition’s positioning keeps it competitive for the top two spots. Trader consensus therefore treats One Nation as the clear frontrunner for third on primary votes, consistent with the “wisdom of crowds” reflected in live pricing three months before polling day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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