**Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78% implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling advantages of 52–57% over Labor in recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, and Roy Morgan.** Primary vote trends show Labor and the Coalition roughly level in the mid-20s while One Nation polls in the low-to-mid 20s, yet preference flows and seat projections favor the Coalition forming government after the November 28 election. Labor’s position at 19.5% tracks ongoing voter fatigue after 12 years in office, the July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, and weaker personal ratings for the new premier in some polls. One Nation’s 2.1% price aligns with its limited lower-house prospects despite primary strength, while Greens at 1.0% reflect entrenched minor-party dynamics. Recent developments, including a late-August Western Australian by-election win for One Nation and continued Coalition leads in Victorian seat modeling, have reinforced trader expectations that the opposition is best placed to end Labor’s incumbency. The race remains three months from polling day, with potential for shifts from further leadership effects or preference negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.1%
Greens 1.3%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
2026/11/28
Liberal–National
78%
Labor
20%
One Nation
2%
Greens
1%
Liberal–National 78%
Labor 20%
One Nation 2.1%
Greens 1.3%
$10,625 Vol.
$10,625 Vol.
2026/11/28
Liberal–National
$6,390 Vol.
78%
Labor
$1,749 Vol.
20%
One Nation
$2,275 Vol.
2%
Greens
$212 Vol.
1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78% implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling advantages of 52–57% over Labor in recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, and Roy Morgan.** Primary vote trends show Labor and the Coalition roughly level in the mid-20s while One Nation polls in the low-to-mid 20s, yet preference flows and seat projections favor the Coalition forming government after the November 28 election. Labor’s position at 19.5% tracks ongoing voter fatigue after 12 years in office, the July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, and weaker personal ratings for the new premier in some polls.
One Nation’s 2.1% price aligns with its limited lower-house prospects despite primary strength, while Greens at 1.0% reflect entrenched minor-party dynamics. Recent developments, including a late-August Western Australian by-election win for One Nation and continued Coalition leads in Victorian seat modeling, have reinforced trader expectations that the opposition is best placed to end Labor’s incumbency. The race remains three months from polling day, with potential for shifts from further leadership effects or preference negotiations.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
マーケット開始日： Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
音量
$10,625終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78% implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling advantages of 52–57% over Labor in recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, and Roy Morgan.** Primary vote trends show Labor and the Coalition roughly level in the mid-20s while One Nation polls in the low-to-mid 20s, yet preference flows and seat projections favor the Coalition forming government after the November 28 election. Labor’s position at 19.5% tracks ongoing voter fatigue after 12 years in office, the July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, and weaker personal ratings for the new premier in some polls.
One Nation’s 2.1% price aligns with its limited lower-house prospects despite primary strength, while Greens at 1.0% reflect entrenched minor-party dynamics. Recent developments, including a late-August Western Australian by-election win for One Nation and continued Coalition leads in Victorian seat modeling, have reinforced trader expectations that the opposition is best placed to end Labor’s incumbency. The race remains three months from polling day, with potential for shifts from further leadership effects or preference negotiations.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
音量
$10,625終了日
2026/11/28マーケット開始日
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...**Liberal–National Coalition leads Victorian state election markets at 78% implied probability, reflecting consistent two-party-preferred polling advantages of 52–57% over Labor in recent surveys from Resolve, RedBridge, DemosAU, and Roy Morgan.** Primary vote trends show Labor and the Coalition roughly level in the mid-20s while One Nation polls in the low-to-mid 20s, yet preference flows and seat projections favor the Coalition forming government after the November 28 election. Labor’s position at 19.5% tracks ongoing voter fatigue after 12 years in office, the July 28 leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Ben Carroll, and weaker personal ratings for the new premier in some polls. One Nation’s 2.1% price aligns with its limited lower-house prospects despite primary strength, while Greens at 1.0% reflect entrenched minor-party dynamics. Recent developments, including a late-August Western Australian by-election win for One Nation and continued Coalition leads in Victorian seat modeling, have reinforced trader expectations that the opposition is best placed to end Labor’s incumbency. The race remains three months from polling day, with potential for shifts from further leadership effects or preference negotiations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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