Trader consensus places overwhelming weight on 26°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 30, reflected in the 98% market-implied probability. Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models show stable high-pressure conditions maintaining daytime maxima near this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies, aligning with late-August climatology for the Polish capital. Observational data through the morning confirm temperatures tracking closely with guidance, with limited moisture or frontal activity expected to drive significant deviation. Resolution hinges on official station readings, so any rapid afternoon cloud build-up or unmodeled local heating could still nudge the recorded high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 30 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Varsavia il 30 agosto?
26°C 99.0%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$17,213 Vol.
$17,213 Vol.
30 ago 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
99%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 99.0%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
30°C <1%
$17,213 Vol.
$17,213 Vol.
30 ago 2026
21°C or below
$261 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$605 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$329 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$75 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$3,378 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$3,064 Vol.
99%
27°C
$4,616 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$2,255 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,979 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$388 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$263 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places overwhelming weight on 26°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 30, reflected in the 98% market-implied probability. Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models show stable high-pressure conditions maintaining daytime maxima near this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies, aligning with late-August climatology for the Polish capital. Observational data through the morning confirm temperatures tracking closely with guidance, with limited moisture or frontal activity expected to drive significant deviation. Resolution hinges on official station readings, so any rapid afternoon cloud build-up or unmodeled local heating could still nudge the recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$17,213Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places overwhelming weight on 26°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 30, reflected in the 98% market-implied probability. Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models show stable high-pressure conditions maintaining daytime maxima near this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies, aligning with late-August climatology for the Polish capital. Observational data through the morning confirm temperatures tracking closely with guidance, with limited moisture or frontal activity expected to drive significant deviation. Resolution hinges on official station readings, so any rapid afternoon cloud build-up or unmodeled local heating could still nudge the recorded high.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$17,213Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:57 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus places overwhelming weight on 26°C as Warsaw’s highest temperature on August 30, reflected in the 98% market-implied probability. Latest ensemble forecasts from European meteorological models show stable high-pressure conditions maintaining daytime maxima near this threshold under clear to partly cloudy skies, aligning with late-August climatology for the Polish capital. Observational data through the morning confirm temperatures tracking closely with guidance, with limited moisture or frontal activity expected to drive significant deviation. Resolution hinges on official station readings, so any rapid afternoon cloud build-up or unmodeled local heating could still nudge the recorded high.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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