**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance place the expected daily maximum in New York City on August 30, 2026, in the low-to-mid 80s, with official point forecasts calling for highs near 83–84 °F under partly sunny skies.** Afternoon southwest winds of 5–10 mph and a 30–50 % chance of showers or thunderstorms after midday introduce the main source of uncertainty, as convective activity or increased cloud cover can cap peak temperatures below model guidance. This aligns directly with trader positioning: the 82–83 °F bin leads at 55 % implied probability, followed by 80–81 °F at 26 %, reflecting a tight consensus around seasonal norms (historical average high near 81 °F) while discounting higher bins (84–85 °F at only 13.5 %) due to the storm risk and modest recent cooling trends in late August. Early-morning observations in the mid-60s and stable model runs overnight have reinforced rather than shifted these odds, leaving limited room for outcomes outside the 80–85 °F window absent an unexpected clearance or intensification of convection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di New York il 30 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di New York il 30 agosto?
82-83°F 55%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 14%
78-79°F 6%
NUOVO
$30,996 Vol.
NUOVO
$30,996 Vol.
30 ago 2026
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
6%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
55%
84-85°F
14%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
82-83°F 55%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 14%
78-79°F 6%
NUOVO
$30,996 Vol.
NUOVO
$30,996 Vol.
30 ago 2026
73°F or below
$1,758 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,258 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$5,565 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$2,560 Vol.
6%
80-81°F
$8,529 Vol.
26%
82-83°F
$5,905 Vol.
55%
84-85°F
$2,253 Vol.
14%
86-87°F
$1,404 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$468 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$638 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$658 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance place the expected daily maximum in New York City on August 30, 2026, in the low-to-mid 80s, with official point forecasts calling for highs near 83–84 °F under partly sunny skies.**
Afternoon southwest winds of 5–10 mph and a 30–50 % chance of showers or thunderstorms after midday introduce the main source of uncertainty, as convective activity or increased cloud cover can cap peak temperatures below model guidance. This aligns directly with trader positioning: the 82–83 °F bin leads at 55 % implied probability, followed by 80–81 °F at 26 %, reflecting a tight consensus around seasonal norms (historical average high near 81 °F) while discounting higher bins (84–85 °F at only 13.5 %) due to the storm risk and modest recent cooling trends in late August.
Early-morning observations in the mid-60s and stable model runs overnight have reinforced rather than shifted these odds, leaving limited room for outcomes outside the 80–85 °F window absent an unexpected clearance or intensification of convection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ET
Volume
$30,996Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance place the expected daily maximum in New York City on August 30, 2026, in the low-to-mid 80s, with official point forecasts calling for highs near 83–84 °F under partly sunny skies.**
Afternoon southwest winds of 5–10 mph and a 30–50 % chance of showers or thunderstorms after midday introduce the main source of uncertainty, as convective activity or increased cloud cover can cap peak temperatures below model guidance. This aligns directly with trader positioning: the 82–83 °F bin leads at 55 % implied probability, followed by 80–81 °F at 26 %, reflecting a tight consensus around seasonal norms (historical average high near 81 °F) while discounting higher bins (84–85 °F at only 13.5 %) due to the storm risk and modest recent cooling trends in late August.
Early-morning observations in the mid-60s and stable model runs overnight have reinforced rather than shifted these odds, leaving limited room for outcomes outside the 80–85 °F window absent an unexpected clearance or intensification of convection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,996Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 10:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and supporting guidance place the expected daily maximum in New York City on August 30, 2026, in the low-to-mid 80s, with official point forecasts calling for highs near 83–84 °F under partly sunny skies.** Afternoon southwest winds of 5–10 mph and a 30–50 % chance of showers or thunderstorms after midday introduce the main source of uncertainty, as convective activity or increased cloud cover can cap peak temperatures below model guidance. This aligns directly with trader positioning: the 82–83 °F bin leads at 55 % implied probability, followed by 80–81 °F at 26 %, reflecting a tight consensus around seasonal norms (historical average high near 81 °F) while discounting higher bins (84–85 °F at only 13.5 %) due to the storm risk and modest recent cooling trends in late August. Early-morning observations in the mid-60s and stable model runs overnight have reinforced rather than shifted these odds, leaving limited room for outcomes outside the 80–85 °F window absent an unexpected clearance or intensification of convection.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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