**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 30 because real-time observations and official forecasts aligned closely with that threshold.** Northerly to northwesterly flow advected milder air across the region, supporting afternoon peaks near 18°C (64°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with strong winds. This outcome matches MetService and international model guidance, including surface observations from Wellington International Airport and urban stations that recorded highs in this range during the afternoon window. August climatology in Wellington typically features highs around 13–15°C, so the mild conditions reflected a transient synoptic setup rather than an extreme anomaly. The near-100% implied probability reflects high confidence once the peak passed without exceeding the bin, as additional warming would require stronger warm advection or reduced mixing not supported by the data. Resolution hinges on the official recorded maximum at the designated station; minor differences in siting, timing of the peak, or post-analysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths to an alternative outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 30 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 30 agosto?
18°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$81,437 Vol.
$81,437 Vol.
30 ago 2026
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
100%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C or higher
<1%
18°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$81,437 Vol.
$81,437 Vol.
30 ago 2026
11°C or below
$2,787 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$887 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$548 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$3,593 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$4,169 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$17,125 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$15,386 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$13,710 Vol.
100%
19°C
$10,459 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,865 Vol.
<1%
21°C or higher
$8,910 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 30 because real-time observations and official forecasts aligned closely with that threshold.** Northerly to northwesterly flow advected milder air across the region, supporting afternoon peaks near 18°C (64°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with strong winds. This outcome matches MetService and international model guidance, including surface observations from Wellington International Airport and urban stations that recorded highs in this range during the afternoon window. August climatology in Wellington typically features highs around 13–15°C, so the mild conditions reflected a transient synoptic setup rather than an extreme anomaly. The near-100% implied probability reflects high confidence once the peak passed without exceeding the bin, as additional warming would require stronger warm advection or reduced mixing not supported by the data. Resolution hinges on the official recorded maximum at the designated station; minor differences in siting, timing of the peak, or post-analysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths to an alternative outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$81,437Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 30 because real-time observations and official forecasts aligned closely with that threshold.** Northerly to northwesterly flow advected milder air across the region, supporting afternoon peaks near 18°C (64°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with strong winds. This outcome matches MetService and international model guidance, including surface observations from Wellington International Airport and urban stations that recorded highs in this range during the afternoon window. August climatology in Wellington typically features highs around 13–15°C, so the mild conditions reflected a transient synoptic setup rather than an extreme anomaly. The near-100% implied probability reflects high confidence once the peak passed without exceeding the bin, as additional warming would require stronger warm advection or reduced mixing not supported by the data. Resolution hinges on the official recorded maximum at the designated station; minor differences in siting, timing of the peak, or post-analysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths to an alternative outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$81,437Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
**Trader consensus has converged on an 18°C daily maximum in Wellington on August 30 because real-time observations and official forecasts aligned closely with that threshold.** Northerly to northwesterly flow advected milder air across the region, supporting afternoon peaks near 18°C (64°F) under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with strong winds. This outcome matches MetService and international model guidance, including surface observations from Wellington International Airport and urban stations that recorded highs in this range during the afternoon window. August climatology in Wellington typically features highs around 13–15°C, so the mild conditions reflected a transient synoptic setup rather than an extreme anomaly. The near-100% implied probability reflects high confidence once the peak passed without exceeding the bin, as additional warming would require stronger warm advection or reduced mixing not supported by the data. Resolution hinges on the official recorded maximum at the designated station; minor differences in siting, timing of the peak, or post-analysis adjustments remain the only realistic paths to an alternative outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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