Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, driven by consistent numerical weather prediction outputs from regional models showing radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds overnight. Official monitoring data from sources like IMGW align with this threshold as the expected daily low, consistent with late-August climatology where surface temperatures often bottom out near 15°C but can dip lower under favorable conditions. This market-implied probability exceeds 90% because multiple forecast runs converge without major discrepancies, and the resolution window is nearly complete. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or revised observational data from primary stations that push the recorded minimum above or below the threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più bassa a Varsavia il 30 agosto?
La temperatura più bassa a Varsavia il 30 agosto?
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
14°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ago 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
2%
11°C
99%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
11°C 99%
10°C 2%
14°C <1%
9°C or below <1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 ago 2026
9°C or below
$270 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$170 Vol.
2%
11°C
$108 Vol.
99%
12°C
$346 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$349 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$130 Vol.
1%
15°C
$351 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$305 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$205 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, driven by consistent numerical weather prediction outputs from regional models showing radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds overnight. Official monitoring data from sources like IMGW align with this threshold as the expected daily low, consistent with late-August climatology where surface temperatures often bottom out near 15°C but can dip lower under favorable conditions. This market-implied probability exceeds 90% because multiple forecast runs converge without major discrepancies, and the resolution window is nearly complete. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or revised observational data from primary stations that push the recorded minimum above or below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,259Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, driven by consistent numerical weather prediction outputs from regional models showing radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds overnight. Official monitoring data from sources like IMGW align with this threshold as the expected daily low, consistent with late-August climatology where surface temperatures often bottom out near 15°C but can dip lower under favorable conditions. This market-implied probability exceeds 90% because multiple forecast runs converge without major discrepancies, and the resolution window is nearly complete. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or revised observational data from primary stations that push the recorded minimum above or below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,259Data di fine
30 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors an 11°C minimum in Warsaw on August 30, driven by consistent numerical weather prediction outputs from regional models showing radiative cooling under mostly clear skies and light southerly winds overnight. Official monitoring data from sources like IMGW align with this threshold as the expected daily low, consistent with late-August climatology where surface temperatures often bottom out near 15°C but can dip lower under favorable conditions. This market-implied probability exceeds 90% because multiple forecast runs converge without major discrepancies, and the resolution window is nearly complete. A realistic challenge would require unexpected increases in cloud cover, stronger winds, or revised observational data from primary stations that push the recorded minimum above or below the threshold.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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