Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa secured the top spot in the June 2026 primary for California's 21st congressional district and faces Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The district's voter registration and recent voting patterns favor Democrats, reinforced by Costa's prior win with over 52 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as likely Democratic. These elements underpin the current trader consensus reflecting high implied probability for a Democratic hold. A shift could occur from an unexpected national political wave, significant late developments involving either candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Valley district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
$24,749 Vol.
$24,749 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
9%
$24,749 Vol.
$24,749 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$14,407 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$10,342 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa secured the top spot in the June 2026 primary for California's 21st congressional district and faces Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The district's voter registration and recent voting patterns favor Democrats, reinforced by Costa's prior win with over 52 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as likely Democratic. These elements underpin the current trader consensus reflecting high implied probability for a Democratic hold. A shift could occur from an unexpected national political wave, significant late developments involving either candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Valley district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$24,749Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa secured the top spot in the June 2026 primary for California's 21st congressional district and faces Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The district's voter registration and recent voting patterns favor Democrats, reinforced by Costa's prior win with over 52 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as likely Democratic. These elements underpin the current trader consensus reflecting high implied probability for a Democratic hold. A shift could occur from an unexpected national political wave, significant late developments involving either candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Valley district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,749Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa secured the top spot in the June 2026 primary for California's 21st congressional district and faces Republican Kyle Kirkland in the November general election. The district's voter registration and recent voting patterns favor Democrats, reinforced by Costa's prior win with over 52 percent in 2024 and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as likely Democratic. These elements underpin the current trader consensus reflecting high implied probability for a Democratic hold. A shift could occur from an unexpected national political wave, significant late developments involving either candidate, or unusually low Democratic turnout in this Central Valley district.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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