Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$20,764 Vol.
$20,764 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Aisha Wahab
84%
Melissa Hernandez
15%
$20,764 Vol.
$20,764 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Aisha Wahab
$12,630 Vol.
84%
Melissa Hernandez
$8,133 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
Volume
$20,764Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,764Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds the leading position in the CA-14 House race at 83.5% implied probability, reflecting her victory in the August 2026 special election runoff and resulting incumbency for the November general election. In that contest, Wahab defeated Melissa Hernandez 53.1% to 46.9% after both advanced from the June primary, where Wahab led by a wide margin. Recent developments include heavy outside spending by AIPAC-affiliated groups exceeding $2.5 million in support of Hernandez during the final weeks of the special election, which narrowed but did not overcome Wahab’s lead as late mail ballots favored her. The safely Democratic East Bay district and Wahab’s established name recognition and endorsements position her as the frontrunner, while Hernandez’s rematch prospects depend on sustained fundraising and voter turnout dynamics in the overlapping campaigns.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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