Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-16
$92,580 Vol.
$92,580 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
95%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$92,580 Vol.
$92,580 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$51,719 Vol.
95%
Partito Repubblicano
$40,862 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$92,580Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$92,580Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sam Liccardo secured the CA-16 nomination in the June 2026 top-two primary with over 75% of the vote, far outpacing the leading Republican. The Santa Clara and San Mateo County-based district carries a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its Solid D rating and historical voting patterns that delivered the seat to Democrats in the prior cycle. Traders assign the party a 94.5% implied probability of holding the seat in the November general election. Late developments such as a major national political shift, candidate health issue, or unforeseen scandal could narrow the margin, though the district's composition and primary results indicate substantial structural advantages for the Democratic nominee.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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