Democratic incumbent Kevin Mullin’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026 primary, where he captured roughly 60 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, reinforces the district’s entrenched partisan tilt. California’s 15th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in presidential and statewide contests that have produced little turnover in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race raters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic based on voting history, fundraising patterns, and the absence of credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, incumbent health crisis, or dramatic national realignment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-15
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-15
$117,370 Vol.
$117,370 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
96%
Partito Repubblicano
4%
$117,370 Vol.
$117,370 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$92,679 Vol.
96%
Partito Repubblicano
$24,692 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Kevin Mullin’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026 primary, where he captured roughly 60 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, reinforces the district’s entrenched partisan tilt. California’s 15th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in presidential and statewide contests that have produced little turnover in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race raters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic based on voting history, fundraising patterns, and the absence of credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, incumbent health crisis, or dramatic national realignment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$117,370Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Kevin Mullin’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026 primary, where he captured roughly 60 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, reinforces the district’s entrenched partisan tilt. California’s 15th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in presidential and statewide contests that have produced little turnover in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race raters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic based on voting history, fundraising patterns, and the absence of credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, incumbent health crisis, or dramatic national realignment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$117,370Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Kevin Mullin’s strong performance in the June 2, 2026 primary, where he captured roughly 60 percent of the vote and advanced alongside Republican Charles Hoelter, reinforces the district’s entrenched partisan tilt. California’s 15th congressional district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26, reflecting consistent Democratic margins in presidential and statewide contests that have produced little turnover in recent cycles. Nonpartisan race raters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic based on voting history, fundraising patterns, and the absence of credible Republican challengers. Trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a major scandal, incumbent health crisis, or dramatic national realignment capable of overcoming the district’s baseline partisan composition before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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