Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 30–31 °C under typical late-summer Pacific high pressure and light southerly flow, matching the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and exact observation timing at the official station introduce small but decisive uncertainty between 30 °C and 32 °C, while climatological normals of 31.1 °C provide a stable baseline. Traders weigh these factors against ongoing above-normal seasonal temperatures and minimal precipitation chances, keeping 33 °C or higher at low implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
31°C 38%
32°C 30%
30°C 21%
33°C 7%
BARU
$39,724 Vol.
BARU
$39,724 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
7%
30°C
21%
31°C
38%
32°C
30%
33°C
7%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 38%
32°C 30%
30°C 21%
33°C 7%
BARU
$39,724 Vol.
BARU
$39,724 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
25°C or below
$686 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$583 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,085 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8,182 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,372 Vol.
7%
30°C
$4,269 Vol.
21%
31°C
$5,608 Vol.
38%
32°C
$5,566 Vol.
30%
33°C
$4,014 Vol.
7%
34°C
$2,494 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$2,865 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 30–31 °C under typical late-summer Pacific high pressure and light southerly flow, matching the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and exact observation timing at the official station introduce small but decisive uncertainty between 30 °C and 32 °C, while climatological normals of 31.1 °C provide a stable baseline. Traders weigh these factors against ongoing above-normal seasonal temperatures and minimal precipitation chances, keeping 33 °C or higher at low implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$39,724Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 30–31 °C under typical late-summer Pacific high pressure and light southerly flow, matching the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and exact observation timing at the official station introduce small but decisive uncertainty between 30 °C and 32 °C, while climatological normals of 31.1 °C provide a stable baseline. Traders weigh these factors against ongoing above-normal seasonal temperatures and minimal precipitation chances, keeping 33 °C or higher at low implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39,724Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts and ensemble model runs place Tokyo’s August 18 maximum near 30–31 °C under typical late-summer Pacific high pressure and light southerly flow, matching the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes. Urban heat-island effects, variable cloud cover, and exact observation timing at the official station introduce small but decisive uncertainty between 30 °C and 32 °C, while climatological normals of 31.1 °C provide a stable baseline. Traders weigh these factors against ongoing above-normal seasonal temperatures and minimal precipitation chances, keeping 33 °C or higher at low implied odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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