Strong Pacific High pressure over Honshu has sustained above-average overnight temperatures across eastern Japan, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts pointing to a Tokyo minimum near 24–25°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling typical of clearer summer nights, aligning with climatological August lows of 23–25°C while recent model runs show minimal spread. The 91% market-implied probability on exactly 25°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late-model shift introducing stronger onshore flow or unexpected heavy showers could allow a dip to 24°C or lower, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 18?
25°C 91%
24°C 7%
23°C 1.7%
22°C <1%
BARU
$10,304 Vol.
BARU
$10,304 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
7%
25°C
91%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 91%
24°C 7%
23°C 1.7%
22°C <1%
BARU
$10,304 Vol.
BARU
$10,304 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
20°C or below
$422 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$1,160 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,082 Vol.
1%
23°C
$2,560 Vol.
2%
24°C
$1,049 Vol.
7%
25°C
$1,758 Vol.
91%
26°C
$429 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$559 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$676 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$318 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$292 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong Pacific High pressure over Honshu has sustained above-average overnight temperatures across eastern Japan, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts pointing to a Tokyo minimum near 24–25°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling typical of clearer summer nights, aligning with climatological August lows of 23–25°C while recent model runs show minimal spread. The 91% market-implied probability on exactly 25°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late-model shift introducing stronger onshore flow or unexpected heavy showers could allow a dip to 24°C or lower, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$10,304Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong Pacific High pressure over Honshu has sustained above-average overnight temperatures across eastern Japan, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts pointing to a Tokyo minimum near 24–25°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling typical of clearer summer nights, aligning with climatological August lows of 23–25°C while recent model runs show minimal spread. The 91% market-implied probability on exactly 25°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late-model shift introducing stronger onshore flow or unexpected heavy showers could allow a dip to 24°C or lower, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,304Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:28 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong Pacific High pressure over Honshu has sustained above-average overnight temperatures across eastern Japan, with official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble forecasts pointing to a Tokyo minimum near 24–25°C on August 18 under mostly cloudy skies and light winds. This setup limits nocturnal radiative cooling typical of clearer summer nights, aligning with climatological August lows of 23–25°C while recent model runs show minimal spread. The 91% market-implied probability on exactly 25°C reflects trader consensus on these stable synoptic conditions. A late-model shift introducing stronger onshore flow or unexpected heavy showers could allow a dip to 24°C or lower, though current guidance indicates low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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