Recent Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak of 34–35°C in Taipei on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. August’s typical subtropical high-pressure ridge supports strong solar heating, but scattered afternoon showers and easterly flow introduce variability in cloud cover and timing of the daily maximum. Higher humidity and urban heat-island effects can amplify readings at official stations, while any earlier or more widespread convection would suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 33–34°C provide context, yet the narrow spread in trader-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty over exact convective development and wind shifts before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Taipei on August 18?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 18?
35°C 42%
34°C 35%
36°C 14%
33°C 10%
BARU
$42,578 Vol.
BARU
$42,578 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
4%
33°C
10%
34°C
35%
35°C
42%
36°C
14%
37°C
4%
38°C or higher
<1%
35°C 42%
34°C 35%
36°C 14%
33°C 10%
BARU
$42,578 Vol.
BARU
$42,578 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
28°C or below
$382 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$4,678 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,771 Vol.
1%
31°C
$5,566 Vol.
1%
32°C
$4,205 Vol.
4%
33°C
$4,690 Vol.
10%
34°C
$4,851 Vol.
35%
35°C
$2,372 Vol.
42%
36°C
$4,307 Vol.
14%
37°C
$3,397 Vol.
4%
38°C or higher
$5,359 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak of 34–35°C in Taipei on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. August’s typical subtropical high-pressure ridge supports strong solar heating, but scattered afternoon showers and easterly flow introduce variability in cloud cover and timing of the daily maximum. Higher humidity and urban heat-island effects can amplify readings at official stations, while any earlier or more widespread convection would suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 33–34°C provide context, yet the narrow spread in trader-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty over exact convective development and wind shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$42,578Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak of 34–35°C in Taipei on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. August’s typical subtropical high-pressure ridge supports strong solar heating, but scattered afternoon showers and easterly flow introduce variability in cloud cover and timing of the daily maximum. Higher humidity and urban heat-island effects can amplify readings at official stations, while any earlier or more widespread convection would suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 33–34°C provide context, yet the narrow spread in trader-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty over exact convective development and wind shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$42,578Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Central Weather Administration guidance and ensemble model consensus point to a peak of 34–35°C in Taipei on August 18, aligning with the market’s near-even split between those two outcomes. August’s typical subtropical high-pressure ridge supports strong solar heating, but scattered afternoon showers and easterly flow introduce variability in cloud cover and timing of the daily maximum. Higher humidity and urban heat-island effects can amplify readings at official stations, while any earlier or more widespread convection would suppress the peak by 1–2°C. Historical August averages near 33–34°C provide context, yet the narrow spread in trader-implied probabilities reflects uncertainty over exact convective development and wind shifts before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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