North Korea’s sustained “two hostile states” posture, missile launches in early August 2026, and deepening military-technical ties with Russia have produced repeated provocations without the large-scale force mobilization or logistics buildup required for a full-scale invasion. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s engagement-focused diplomacy, including conciliatory terminology shifts and outreach to facilitate U.S.–North Korea talks, has kept inter-Korean channels open. Recent U.S. decisions to scale back joint military exercises, citing improved leader-level ties, further signal de-escalation. Traders price the 96.8 percent “No” outcome on the absence of credible invasion indicators within the brief window remaining in 2026, while acknowledging that an abrupt miscalculation around missile tests or border incidents could still alter probabilities before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Corée du Nord envahira-t-elle la Corée du Sud avant 2027 ?
La Corée du Nord envahira-t-elle la Corée du Sud avant 2027 ?
Oui
3% chance
$439,279 Vol.
$439,279 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
3% chance
$439,279 Vol.
$439,279 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.North Korea’s sustained “two hostile states” posture, missile launches in early August 2026, and deepening military-technical ties with Russia have produced repeated provocations without the large-scale force mobilization or logistics buildup required for a full-scale invasion. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s engagement-focused diplomacy, including conciliatory terminology shifts and outreach to facilitate U.S.–North Korea talks, has kept inter-Korean channels open. Recent U.S. decisions to scale back joint military exercises, citing improved leader-level ties, further signal de-escalation. Traders price the 96.8 percent “No” outcome on the absence of credible invasion indicators within the brief window remaining in 2026, while acknowledging that an abrupt miscalculation around missile tests or border incidents could still alter probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ET
Volume
$439,279Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.North Korea’s sustained “two hostile states” posture, missile launches in early August 2026, and deepening military-technical ties with Russia have produced repeated provocations without the large-scale force mobilization or logistics buildup required for a full-scale invasion. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s engagement-focused diplomacy, including conciliatory terminology shifts and outreach to facilitate U.S.–North Korea talks, has kept inter-Korean channels open. Recent U.S. decisions to scale back joint military exercises, citing improved leader-level ties, further signal de-escalation. Traders price the 96.8 percent “No” outcome on the absence of credible invasion indicators within the brief window remaining in 2026, while acknowledging that an abrupt miscalculation around missile tests or border incidents could still alter probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$439,279Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...North Korea’s sustained “two hostile states” posture, missile launches in early August 2026, and deepening military-technical ties with Russia have produced repeated provocations without the large-scale force mobilization or logistics buildup required for a full-scale invasion. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung’s engagement-focused diplomacy, including conciliatory terminology shifts and outreach to facilitate U.S.–North Korea talks, has kept inter-Korean channels open. Recent U.S. decisions to scale back joint military exercises, citing improved leader-level ties, further signal de-escalation. Traders price the 96.8 percent “No” outcome on the absence of credible invasion indicators within the brief window remaining in 2026, while acknowledging that an abrupt miscalculation around missile tests or border incidents could still alter probabilities before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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