Traders assign a 96.2 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises tested reservist call-ups, arms relocation, and communications resilience, while China conducted blockade-style drills earlier in the year and maintained gray-zone coast guard patrols and maritime jurisdiction assertions around the strait. U.S. intelligence assessments highlight ongoing People’s Liberation Army readiness gaps and the high expected costs of U.S. and allied intervention. Beijing continues diplomatic and coercive pressure short of war. Late shifts remain possible from miscalculation during exercises or unforeseen leadership decisions, though structural and timing constraints make these highly improbable before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
La Chine envahira-t-elle Taïwan d'ici la fin de 2026 ?
Oui
$39,756,128 Vol.
$39,756,128 Vol.
Oui
$39,756,128 Vol.
$39,756,128 Vol.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Résolveur
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.2 percent probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the short remaining window and absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or command shifts required for such an operation. Taiwan’s recent Han Kuang exercises tested reservist call-ups, arms relocation, and communications resilience, while China conducted blockade-style drills earlier in the year and maintained gray-zone coast guard patrols and maritime jurisdiction assertions around the strait. U.S. intelligence assessments highlight ongoing People’s Liberation Army readiness gaps and the high expected costs of U.S. and allied intervention. Beijing continues diplomatic and coercive pressure short of war. Late shifts remain possible from miscalculation during exercises or unforeseen leadership decisions, though structural and timing constraints make these highly improbable before year-end.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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