**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving much of the near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile (including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%) inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors have had limited or no access to affected facilities since mid-2025, and U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Official statements from Tehran and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirm no structured nuclear weaponization program is underway, consistent with assessments that Iran suspended such efforts in 2003. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure, verification demands, and the technical time required for any potential reconstitution and testing, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEssai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Essai nucléaire iranien avant 2027 ?
Oui
$207,038 Vol.
$207,038 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$207,038 Vol.
$207,038 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving much of the near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile (including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%) inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors have had limited or no access to affected facilities since mid-2025, and U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Official statements from Tehran and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirm no structured nuclear weaponization program is underway, consistent with assessments that Iran suspended such efforts in 2003.
These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure, verification demands, and the technical time required for any potential reconstitution and testing, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$207,038Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving much of the near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile (including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%) inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors have had limited or no access to affected facilities since mid-2025, and U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Official statements from Tehran and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirm no structured nuclear weaponization program is underway, consistent with assessments that Iran suspended such efforts in 2003.
These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure, verification demands, and the technical time required for any potential reconstitution and testing, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$207,038Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, disrupting centrifuge operations and leaving much of the near-weapons-grade uranium stockpile (including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60%) inaccessible under rubble.** IAEA inspectors have had limited or no access to affected facilities since mid-2025, and U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Official statements from Tehran and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirm no structured nuclear weaponization program is underway, consistent with assessments that Iran suspended such efforts in 2003. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressure, verification demands, and the technical time required for any potential reconstitution and testing, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains improbable before the end of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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