Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic and technical developments show persistent deadlock. The June 2026 Islamabad MoU established a status-quo freeze and 60-day talks focused on down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet negotiations have not produced commitments to halt enrichment permanently. As of early September, the IAEA reports continued Iranian denial of inspector access to key sites, preventing verification of material or facilities, while Tehran maintains its position on nuclear rights. This impasse, reinforced by unresolved disputes over inspections and enrichment scope, underpins the market consensus. Breakthroughs in ongoing technical talks or sudden IAEA verification could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
L'Iran accepte-t-il de mettre fin à l'enrichissement de l'uranium d'ici le 30 septembre ?
Oui
2% chance
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
Oui
2% chance
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic and technical developments show persistent deadlock. The June 2026 Islamabad MoU established a status-quo freeze and 60-day talks focused on down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet negotiations have not produced commitments to halt enrichment permanently. As of early September, the IAEA reports continued Iranian denial of inspector access to key sites, preventing verification of material or facilities, while Tehran maintains its position on nuclear rights. This impasse, reinforced by unresolved disputes over inspections and enrichment scope, underpins the market consensus. Breakthroughs in ongoing technical talks or sudden IAEA verification could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$64,609Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic and technical developments show persistent deadlock. The June 2026 Islamabad MoU established a status-quo freeze and 60-day talks focused on down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet negotiations have not produced commitments to halt enrichment permanently. As of early September, the IAEA reports continued Iranian denial of inspector access to key sites, preventing verification of material or facilities, while Tehran maintains its position on nuclear rights. This impasse, reinforced by unresolved disputes over inspections and enrichment scope, underpins the market consensus. Breakthroughs in ongoing technical talks or sudden IAEA verification could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,609Date de fin
30 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98% probability against Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because recent diplomatic and technical developments show persistent deadlock. The June 2026 Islamabad MoU established a status-quo freeze and 60-day talks focused on down-blending stockpiles under IAEA supervision, yet negotiations have not produced commitments to halt enrichment permanently. As of early September, the IAEA reports continued Iranian denial of inspector access to key sites, preventing verification of material or facilities, while Tehran maintains its position on nuclear rights. This impasse, reinforced by unresolved disputes over inspections and enrichment scope, underpins the market consensus. Breakthroughs in ongoing technical talks or sudden IAEA verification could still shift outcomes before the deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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