The Iranian regime's institutional continuity and demonstrated resilience after the February 2026 leadership transition and subsequent military exchanges with Israel and the United States underpin trader expectations that it will not fall by September 30. Succession mechanisms activated rapidly under the Assembly of Experts, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed as supreme leader, while security forces maintained cohesion without large-scale defections amid prior protests and economic strain. Recent diplomatic efforts, including ceasefires and memoranda through mid-2026, have shifted focus toward de-escalation rather than internal fracture. In the narrow remaining window, significant barriers include the absence of coordinated elite defections or sustained nationwide unrest capable of toppling the system. Late developments such as renewed elite power struggles, sudden mass protests, or major external shocks could still shift assessments, though historical patterns of regime adaptation make rapid collapse improbable.