Recent U.S.-Iran tensions escalated into the 2026 Iran war with joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning February 28, followed by Iranian missile and drone retaliation, a brief April ceasefire, and a June memorandum of understanding that lifted blockades and sanctions in exchange for nuclear talks and Strait of Hormuz access. Tensions resumed in July over Iranian restrictions and attacks in the strait, prompting further U.S. strikes and demands for compensation, yet both sides have sustained direct negotiations involving Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials through August. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and ongoing diplomatic channels plus military resource strain, traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of conditions or stated intent for a full-scale ground invasion.