Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping and reported attacks on Red Sea infrastructure, have driven sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship counts fluctuating between lows near 11–16 and brief rebounds to 31–39. This uncertainty around sustained disruptions—compounded by rerouting decisions from major carriers, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Saudi Arabia’s formation of a protective maritime coalition—has compressed implied probabilities across the 180–220 range. Trader sentiment reflects the narrow gap between persistent threat levels that could suppress weekly volumes below 200 and any near-term stabilization or Saudi export shifts that might support higher throughput, with resolution hinging on developments in the immediate days before the August 10 period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCombien de navires transitent par la semaine du 10 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
Combien de navires transitent par la semaine du 10 août dans le détroit de Bab el-Mandeb ?
180-199 47%
<180 46%
200-219 46%
220+ 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
<180
46%
180-199
47%
200-219
46%
220+
37%
180-199 47%
<180 46%
200-219 46%
220+ 37%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
16 août 2026
<180
$0 Vol.
46%
180-199
$0 Vol.
47%
200-219
$0 Vol.
46%
220+
$0 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping and reported attacks on Red Sea infrastructure, have driven sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship counts fluctuating between lows near 11–16 and brief rebounds to 31–39. This uncertainty around sustained disruptions—compounded by rerouting decisions from major carriers, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Saudi Arabia’s formation of a protective maritime coalition—has compressed implied probabilities across the 180–220 range. Trader sentiment reflects the narrow gap between persistent threat levels that could suppress weekly volumes below 200 and any near-term stabilization or Saudi export shifts that might support higher throughput, with resolution hinging on developments in the immediate days before the August 10 period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Marché ouvert : Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping and reported attacks on Red Sea infrastructure, have driven sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship counts fluctuating between lows near 11–16 and brief rebounds to 31–39. This uncertainty around sustained disruptions—compounded by rerouting decisions from major carriers, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Saudi Arabia’s formation of a protective maritime coalition—has compressed implied probabilities across the 180–220 range. Trader sentiment reflects the narrow gap between persistent threat levels that could suppress weekly volumes below 200 and any near-term stabilization or Saudi export shifts that might support higher throughput, with resolution hinging on developments in the immediate days before the August 10 period.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$0Date de fin
16 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi threats, including a July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping and reported attacks on Red Sea infrastructure, have driven sharp volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship counts fluctuating between lows near 11–16 and brief rebounds to 31–39. This uncertainty around sustained disruptions—compounded by rerouting decisions from major carriers, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and Saudi Arabia’s formation of a protective maritime coalition—has compressed implied probabilities across the 180–220 range. Trader sentiment reflects the narrow gap between persistent threat levels that could suppress weekly volumes below 200 and any near-term stabilization or Saudi export shifts that might support higher throughput, with resolution hinging on developments in the immediate days before the August 10 period.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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