Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourL'île Farsi n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par… ?
L'île Farsi n'est plus sous contrôle iranien par… ?
$197,515 Vol.
30 sept. 2026
30 septembre
1%
$197,515 Vol.
30 septembre
$20,245 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$197,515Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$197,515Date de fin
1 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the Persian Gulf, remains under Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. strikes have targeted military assets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, and Kharg to disrupt Strait of Hormuz shipping threats and mining activity, yet these operations have focused on degrading capabilities rather than territorial seizure or occupation. No verified strikes, ground operations, or diplomatic shifts have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with historical Iranian retention of its Gulf outposts despite tensions. Trader-implied probabilities for loss of control by late 2026 dates stay very low, reflecting the challenges of rapid sovereignty changes in the current airstrike-focused dynamic and the absence of announced plans for island seizures.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes