**U.S. policy toward Cuba in 2026 has centered on economic pressure rather than military action.** Since January, the Trump administration has enforced an oil and fuel blockade through executive orders, secondary sanctions on third-country suppliers, and designations targeting Cuban energy and security entities. These measures have intensified the island’s energy shortages and economic strain following the loss of Venezuelan supplies. Senior officials have used strong rhetoric about regime change and a possible “friendly takeover,” yet the United States has pursued parallel diplomatic channels, including reported high-level talks and a May CIA director meeting in Havana. Analyses from defense experts continue to rate a full-scale invasion as the least probable scenario, citing Cuba’s limited conventional capabilities, the high costs of urban or insurgent conflict, and the absence of any authorizing military deployments or congressional action. Ongoing sanctions expansions through mid-2026 have reinforced trader expectations that the current maximum-pressure approach will persist without crossing into direct intervention by year-end.