Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 30,000 per month and slowed advances in eastern regions as of mid-August 2026, continue to constrain its capacity for additional large-scale invasions. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian industrial and energy targets, including deadly attacks in August, have further strained resources without prompting Moscow to open new fronts. Diplomatic efforts, including earlier 2026 talks, have collapsed amid persistent demands over Donbas, while Russia focuses on consolidating occupied Ukrainian territory rather than expanding elsewhere. Traders assess these factors as significant barriers to a new invasion before year-end, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability on "No."
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa Russie envahira-t-elle un autre pays en 2026 ?
La Russie envahira-t-elle un autre pays en 2026 ?
Oui
6% chance
$404,747 Vol.
$404,747 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
Oui
6% chance
$404,747 Vol.
$404,747 Vol.
30 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 30,000 per month and slowed advances in eastern regions as of mid-August 2026, continue to constrain its capacity for additional large-scale invasions. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian industrial and energy targets, including deadly attacks in August, have further strained resources without prompting Moscow to open new fronts. Diplomatic efforts, including earlier 2026 talks, have collapsed amid persistent demands over Donbas, while Russia focuses on consolidating occupied Ukrainian territory rather than expanding elsewhere. Traders assess these factors as significant barriers to a new invasion before year-end, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volume
$404,747Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 30,000 per month and slowed advances in eastern regions as of mid-August 2026, continue to constrain its capacity for additional large-scale invasions. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian industrial and energy targets, including deadly attacks in August, have further strained resources without prompting Moscow to open new fronts. Diplomatic efforts, including earlier 2026 talks, have collapsed amid persistent demands over Donbas, while Russia focuses on consolidating occupied Ukrainian territory rather than expanding elsewhere. Traders assess these factors as significant barriers to a new invasion before year-end, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability on "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$404,747Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, marked by high casualties exceeding 30,000 per month and slowed advances in eastern regions as of mid-August 2026, continue to constrain its capacity for additional large-scale invasions. Recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian industrial and energy targets, including deadly attacks in August, have further strained resources without prompting Moscow to open new fronts. Diplomatic efforts, including earlier 2026 talks, have collapsed amid persistent demands over Donbas, while Russia focuses on consolidating occupied Ukrainian territory rather than expanding elsewhere. Traders assess these factors as significant barriers to a new invasion before year-end, aligning with the 94.5% implied probability on "No."
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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