Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown continued resilience amid ongoing war-related economic strains and isolated expressions of elite discontent. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March 2026, including expanded protection details and reduced public appearances, reflect precautionary measures against potential plots, yet no organized challenge from security services, military factions, or oligarchs has materialized. Detentions of prominent milbloggers and vocal critics earlier in the year underscore the regime's capacity to neutralize dissent before it coalesces. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the security apparatus's demonstrated loyalty and shared incentives to avoid destabilization, underpin trader assessments that a coup attempt remains improbable through the remainder of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour7% chance
$121,498 Vol.
$121,498 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
7% chance
$121,498 Vol.
$121,498 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown continued resilience amid ongoing war-related economic strains and isolated expressions of elite discontent. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March 2026, including expanded protection details and reduced public appearances, reflect precautionary measures against potential plots, yet no organized challenge from security services, military factions, or oligarchs has materialized. Detentions of prominent milbloggers and vocal critics earlier in the year underscore the regime's capacity to neutralize dissent before it coalesces. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the security apparatus's demonstrated loyalty and shared incentives to avoid destabilization, underpin trader assessments that a coup attempt remains improbable through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$121,498Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown continued resilience amid ongoing war-related economic strains and isolated expressions of elite discontent. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March 2026, including expanded protection details and reduced public appearances, reflect precautionary measures against potential plots, yet no organized challenge from security services, military factions, or oligarchs has materialized. Detentions of prominent milbloggers and vocal critics earlier in the year underscore the regime's capacity to neutralize dissent before it coalesces. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the security apparatus's demonstrated loyalty and shared incentives to avoid destabilization, underpin trader assessments that a coup attempt remains improbable through the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$121,498Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system under President Vladimir Putin has shown continued resilience amid ongoing war-related economic strains and isolated expressions of elite discontent. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March 2026, including expanded protection details and reduced public appearances, reflect precautionary measures against potential plots, yet no organized challenge from security services, military factions, or oligarchs has materialized. Detentions of prominent milbloggers and vocal critics earlier in the year underscore the regime's capacity to neutralize dissent before it coalesces. Historical patterns of Russian leadership transitions, combined with the security apparatus's demonstrated loyalty and shared incentives to avoid destabilization, underpin trader assessments that a coup attempt remains improbable through the remainder of 2026.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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