Iran faces ongoing internal divisions and economic strain following the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and allies of a "soft coup" through expanded roles for the Supreme Council for National Security and sidelining of traditional institutions amid fragile ceasefire talks. These accusations reflect factional power struggles rather than coordinated military action. Widespread protests, suppressed dissent, and questions over regime legitimacy continue, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus maintain significant control. No verified coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August 2026, though scheduled diplomatic or protest-related developments through year-end could influence internal stability assessments reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$2,120,242 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
11%
$2,120,242 Vol.
31 décembre
$79,016 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces ongoing internal divisions and economic strain following the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and allies of a "soft coup" through expanded roles for the Supreme Council for National Security and sidelining of traditional institutions amid fragile ceasefire talks. These accusations reflect factional power struggles rather than coordinated military action. Widespread protests, suppressed dissent, and questions over regime legitimacy continue, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus maintain significant control. No verified coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August 2026, though scheduled diplomatic or protest-related developments through year-end could influence internal stability assessments reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,120,242Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran faces ongoing internal divisions and economic strain following the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and allies of a "soft coup" through expanded roles for the Supreme Council for National Security and sidelining of traditional institutions amid fragile ceasefire talks. These accusations reflect factional power struggles rather than coordinated military action. Widespread protests, suppressed dissent, and questions over regime legitimacy continue, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus maintain significant control. No verified coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August 2026, though scheduled diplomatic or protest-related developments through year-end could influence internal stability assessments reflected in market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,120,242Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran faces ongoing internal divisions and economic strain following the 2026 war with the United States and Israel, the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei. Hardline factions have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and allies of a "soft coup" through expanded roles for the Supreme Council for National Security and sidelining of traditional institutions amid fragile ceasefire talks. These accusations reflect factional power struggles rather than coordinated military action. Widespread protests, suppressed dissent, and questions over regime legitimacy continue, yet the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and security apparatus maintain significant control. No verified coup attempt has occurred as of mid-August 2026, though scheduled diplomatic or protest-related developments through year-end could influence internal stability assessments reflected in market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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