Recent July 2026 Bank of Korea rate hike to 2.75% amid accelerating inflation—now at 2.8% in July after 3.2% in June—has shaped trader positioning ahead of the August 27 decision. Persistent price pressures above the 2% target, driven by oil prices and a weaker won, alongside robust semiconductor exports and 2.6% GDP growth projections, support the 36.5% implied probability of another 25 basis point increase. Outgoing Deputy Governor Ryoo's August 11 remarks highlighting a "high" likelihood of further preemptive tightening reinforced hawkish sentiment. Market-implied odds of 63.5% for no change reflect the recent policy shift and moderating July CPI data, though uncertainty persists around upcoming inflation releases and global factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque de Corée en août ?
No Change 64%
25 bps hike 37%
25 bps cut <1%
50+ bps cut <1%
$34,789 Vol.
$34,789 Vol.
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
1%
No Change
64%
25 bps hike
37%
50+ bps hike
<1%
No Change 64%
25 bps hike 37%
25 bps cut <1%
50+ bps cut <1%
$34,789 Vol.
$34,789 Vol.
50+ bps cut
<1%
25 bps cut
1%
No Change
64%
25 bps hike
37%
50+ bps hike
<1%
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Marché ouvert : May 28, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its August 2026 meeting, scheduled for August 27, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its August 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 Bank of Korea rate hike to 2.75% amid accelerating inflation—now at 2.8% in July after 3.2% in June—has shaped trader positioning ahead of the August 27 decision. Persistent price pressures above the 2% target, driven by oil prices and a weaker won, alongside robust semiconductor exports and 2.6% GDP growth projections, support the 36.5% implied probability of another 25 basis point increase. Outgoing Deputy Governor Ryoo's August 11 remarks highlighting a "high" likelihood of further preemptive tightening reinforced hawkish sentiment. Market-implied odds of 63.5% for no change reflect the recent policy shift and moderating July CPI data, though uncertainty persists around upcoming inflation releases and global factors.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour

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