**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Austin le 22 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Austin le 22 août ?
104-105°F 100.0%
95°F ou moins <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
22 août 2026
95°F ou moins
Non
96-97°F
Non
98-99°F
Non
100-101°F
Non
102-103°F
Non
104-105°F
Oui
106-107°F
Non
108-109 °F
Non
110-111 °F
Non
112-113°F
Non
114°F ou plus
Non
104-105°F 100.0%
95°F ou moins <1%
96-97°F <1%
98-99°F <1%
$19,621 Vol.
$19,621 Vol.
22 août 2026
95°F ou moins
$60 Vol.
Non
96-97°F
$140 Vol.
Non
98-99°F
$170 Vol.
Non
100-101°F
$1,967 Vol.
Non
102-103°F
$4,172 Vol.
Non
104-105°F
$6,691 Vol.
Oui
106-107°F
$3,979 Vol.
Non
108-109 °F
$1,756 Vol.
Non
110-111 °F
$250 Vol.
Non
112-113°F
$284 Vol.
Non
114°F ou plus
$153 Vol.
Non
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$19,621Date de fin
22 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$19,621Date de fin
22 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 20, 2026, 8:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
**Trader consensus has consolidated at 100% implied probability on a 104-105°F high for Austin on August 22 because official station observations aligned with National Weather Service forecasts under a persistent upper-level ridge.** Clear skies, strong southerly flow, and minimal afternoon moisture limited any cooling, allowing temperatures to peak in that narrow range amid an ongoing heat wave that had already produced multiple 102-104°F days earlier in August. Historical averages for the date hover near 96°F, highlighting the anomalous conditions driven by the ridge. Resolution depends on verified maximum readings at primary sites such as Austin-Bergstrom or Camp Mabry; while model spreads were tight around 102-106°F, post-event data eliminated adjacent bins, leaving negligible probability for outcomes outside 104-105°F.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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