Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and global models such as GFS position Paris’s August 24 maximum near 27 °C under a northwesterly flow with partly cloudy skies that moderate afternoon insolation after the late-August cool-down. Persistent high pressure near 1015–1018 hPa and dew points in the low teens support modest boundary-layer mixing, while any reduction in cloud cover or slight backing of winds could allow a 28 °C reading. Traders assign the highest implied probability (48.5 %) to 27 °C because the consensus range across deterministic and probabilistic runs clusters tightly around this value, with the 22.5 % on 28 °C capturing residual uncertainty in diurnal heating and local urban effects. Updated short-range guidance and the final Météo-France bulletin before the 24-hour observation window remain the key near-term catalysts.