**Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Station and international models point to a daily maximum temperature of 30–33°C on August 23, 2026, aligning closely with the market’s heaviest weighting on 30°C (27%) and 31°C (41.5%).** Scattered afternoon thunderstorms and convective activity, typical during the Chushu solar term, are expected to limit peak heating through cloud cover, evaporative cooling from rain, and increased humidity, keeping readings from climbing much above 32–33°C despite seasonally warm conditions. Hourly data show temperatures rising from morning lows near 24–26°C to afternoon peaks around 31–32°C before storms develop, consistent with model consensus from sources such as WeatherBug (≈32°C with 80% storm chance) and regional outlooks (24–34°C range, center-city focus on 31–33°C). Persistent monsoon moisture and localized heavy rain potential further cap extremes, while historical late-August baselines in the Sichuan basin rarely exceed 33°C without clear, dry conditions. Upcoming updates from the National Meteorological Center or revised NWP runs could shift sentiment if convection weakens or strengthens.