**Recent forecasts and observations indicate a likely overnight low near 25°C in Chengdu on August 23, 2026, aligning with the market's strong 78% implied probability for that outcome.** Chengdu's humid subtropical climate features persistently high humidity (often 70-85%) and frequent summer precipitation that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures elevated compared to drier regions. Scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover on the day—consistent with ongoing convective activity and short-term warnings for localized heavy rain—further moderate cooling by trapping heat and adding evaporative effects. Multiple sources, including regional models and station data, converge on nighttime lows of 24–26°C, with historical August averages around 22–23°C but current conditions (elevated dew points near 24–25°C and light winds) supporting the upper end of that range. The 21.5% weighting on 24°C reflects residual uncertainty from variable rain timing or brief clearer intervals that could allow slightly more cooling, while lower-probability outcomes remain distant given the stable synoptic pattern. Official resolution will depend on verified station readings, with traders incorporating the latest model runs and real-time observations as the day progresses.