The $5 trillion debt-ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent forecasts placing the breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are projected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective X-date past December 2027. Trader consensus at roughly 97 percent “No” reflects this timeline together with Congress’s record of more than 100 prior actions raising or suspending the limit without a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to preserve U.S. credit standing and avert market disruption further support the positioning. Residual risks that could still shift probabilities include an unusually prolonged partisan standoff that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the date when obligations cannot be met in full.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$16,216 Vol.
$16,216 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$16,216 Vol.
$16,216 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The $5 trillion debt-ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent forecasts placing the breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are projected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective X-date past December 2027. Trader consensus at roughly 97 percent “No” reflects this timeline together with Congress’s record of more than 100 prior actions raising or suspending the limit without a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to preserve U.S. credit standing and avert market disruption further support the positioning. Residual risks that could still shift probabilities include an unusually prolonged partisan standoff that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the date when obligations cannot be met in full.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$16,216End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The $5 trillion debt-ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent forecasts placing the breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are projected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective X-date past December 2027. Trader consensus at roughly 97 percent “No” reflects this timeline together with Congress’s record of more than 100 prior actions raising or suspending the limit without a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to preserve U.S. credit standing and avert market disruption further support the positioning. Residual risks that could still shift probabilities include an unusually prolonged partisan standoff that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the date when obligations cannot be met in full.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$16,216End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The $5 trillion debt-ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act set the statutory limit at $41.1 trillion, with independent forecasts placing the breach between late winter and mid-summer 2027. Treasury extraordinary measures are projected to provide an additional six-to-nine-month buffer, extending the effective X-date past December 2027. Trader consensus at roughly 97 percent “No” reflects this timeline together with Congress’s record of more than 100 prior actions raising or suspending the limit without a payment default on Treasury obligations. Institutional incentives to preserve U.S. credit standing and avert market disruption further support the positioning. Residual risks that could still shift probabilities include an unusually prolonged partisan standoff that exhausts cash reserves and measures before year-end 2027, or an unforeseen fiscal shock that sharply accelerates the date when obligations cannot be met in full.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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