Traders assign SPD a 99.2% implied probability of outpolling the Greens in the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election because pre-election surveys consistently placed the Social Democrats several points ahead. Recent polling averages showed SPD at 7–9% versus Greens at 5–6%, a gap that widened modestly after late tactical-voting efforts boosted both parties but preserved SPD’s lead. Structural factors reinforce the consensus: the Greens have long polled weakly in eastern states outside urban centers, while the SPD maintained a modest organizational edge and benefited from the collapsing CDU vote. With official results now confirming SPD at 9.3% and Greens at 8.9%, only an unprecedented recount or tabulation error could reverse the ordering, scenarios viewed as remote given the margin and high turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?
Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?
SPD
99% chance
$70,920 Vol.
$70,920 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
SPD
99% chance
$70,920 Vol.
$70,920 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Traders assign SPD a 99.2% implied probability of outpolling the Greens in the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election because pre-election surveys consistently placed the Social Democrats several points ahead. Recent polling averages showed SPD at 7–9% versus Greens at 5–6%, a gap that widened modestly after late tactical-voting efforts boosted both parties but preserved SPD’s lead. Structural factors reinforce the consensus: the Greens have long polled weakly in eastern states outside urban centers, while the SPD maintained a modest organizational edge and benefited from the collapsing CDU vote. With official results now confirming SPD at 9.3% and Greens at 8.9%, only an unprecedented recount or tabulation error could reverse the ordering, scenarios viewed as remote given the margin and high turnout.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$70,920End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).Traders assign SPD a 99.2% implied probability of outpolling the Greens in the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election because pre-election surveys consistently placed the Social Democrats several points ahead. Recent polling averages showed SPD at 7–9% versus Greens at 5–6%, a gap that widened modestly after late tactical-voting efforts boosted both parties but preserved SPD’s lead. Structural factors reinforce the consensus: the Greens have long polled weakly in eastern states outside urban centers, while the SPD maintained a modest organizational edge and benefited from the collapsing CDU vote. With official results now confirming SPD at 9.3% and Greens at 8.9%, only an unprecedented recount or tabulation error could reverse the ordering, scenarios viewed as remote given the margin and high turnout.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026.
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
This market will resolve to “SPD” if SPD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than SPD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both SPD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
Volume
$70,920End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign SPD a 99.2% implied probability of outpolling the Greens in the 6 September 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtag election because pre-election surveys consistently placed the Social Democrats several points ahead. Recent polling averages showed SPD at 7–9% versus Greens at 5–6%, a gap that widened modestly after late tactical-voting efforts boosted both parties but preserved SPD’s lead. Structural factors reinforce the consensus: the Greens have long polled weakly in eastern states outside urban centers, while the SPD maintained a modest organizational edge and benefited from the collapsing CDU vote. With official results now confirming SPD at 9.3% and Greens at 8.9%, only an unprecedented recount or tabulation error could reverse the ordering, scenarios viewed as remote given the margin and high turnout.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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