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Politics·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Politics·PM

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 52%

Elly Schlein 14%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 8.0%

Polymarket

$75,585 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni 52%

Elly Schlein 14%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 8.0%

Polymarket

$75,585 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni

$8,653 Vol.

52%

Elly Schlein

$5,675 Vol.

14%

Giuseppe Conte

$5,139 Vol.

13%

Antonio Tajani

$2,102 Vol.

<1%

Matteo Salvini

$3,330 Vol.

<1%

Guido Crosetto

$1,464 Vol.

<1%

Mario Draghi

$2,268 Vol.

3%

Silvia Salis

$8,526 Vol.

8%

Roberto Vannacci

$33,312 Vol.

8%

Matteo Renzi

$1,567 Vol.

1%

Angelo Bonelli

$1,722 Vol.

<1%

Carlo Calenda

$1,828 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni maintains the strongest position in trader assessments as incumbent prime minister heading Brothers of Italy, the leading party in recent polling averages around 26-27 percent ahead of the 2027 election deadline. Her coalition's narrow edge over centre-left forces, combined with her established role in government formation, underpins the 51.5 percent implied probability. Rising support for Roberto Vannacci's new Futuro Nazionale party, now polling near 7-8 percent and drawing from coalition ranks, has introduced uncertainty on the right and lifted his odds to 8 percent. Opposition figures Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement trail at 14 percent and 12.5 percent respectively, reflecting fragmented centre-left dynamics and lower single-party support in surveys. Recent parliamentary setbacks on electoral reform and weaker youth approval ratings have tempered momentum without shifting the overall hierarchy.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,585
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni maintains the strongest position in trader assessments as incumbent prime minister heading Brothers of Italy, the leading party in recent polling averages around 26-27 percent ahead of the 2027 election deadline. Her coalition's narrow edge over centre-left forces, combined with her established role in government formation, underpins the 51.5 percent implied probability. Rising support for Roberto Vannacci's new Futuro Nazionale party, now polling near 7-8 percent and drawing from coalition ranks, has introduced uncertainty on the right and lifted his odds to 8 percent. Opposition figures Elly Schlein of the Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte of the Five Star Movement trail at 14 percent and 12.5 percent respectively, reflecting fragmented centre-left dynamics and lower single-party support in surveys. Recent parliamentary setbacks on electoral reform and weaker youth approval ratings have tempered momentum without shifting the overall hierarchy.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$75,585
End Date
Dec 31, 2028
Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Giorgia Meloni" at 52%, followed by "Elly Schlein" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" has generated $75.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Italy?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is "Giorgia Meloni" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elly Schlein" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.