Forecast models for Wellington on September 2 show overnight lows clustered near 11–13°C amid strengthening northwesterly flow, with ensembles indicating modest spread from variable cloud cover and frontal timing. Radiative cooling under clearer skies could push minima toward 11°C or slightly below, while increased wind mixing and marine air advection from the Tasman Sea favor 12°C or higher. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in the precise overnight minimum due to Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait channeling and springtime variability in sea surface temperatures, which moderate extremes. Trader consensus near 50% for 11°C versus 12°C reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes, with lower probabilities for 7°C or below underscoring limited cold-air intrusion potential. Updated NWP guidance and MetService briefings will refine resolution criteria as the period approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 2?
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
-
8°C
-
9°C
-
10°C
-
11°C
-
12°C
-
13°C
1%
14°C
-
15°C
47%
16°C
43%
17°C or higher
42%
13°C 1%
7°C or below 0
8°C 0
9°C 0
NEW
NEW
Sep 2, 2026
7°C or below
$31 Vol.
-
8°C
$11 Vol.
-
9°C
$10 Vol.
-
10°C
$10 Vol.
-
11°C
$10 Vol.
-
12°C
$0 Vol.
-
13°C
$169 Vol.
1%
14°C
$5 Vol.
-
15°C
$10 Vol.
47%
16°C
$10 Vol.
43%
17°C or higher
$18 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Wellington on September 2 show overnight lows clustered near 11–13°C amid strengthening northwesterly flow, with ensembles indicating modest spread from variable cloud cover and frontal timing. Radiative cooling under clearer skies could push minima toward 11°C or slightly below, while increased wind mixing and marine air advection from the Tasman Sea favor 12°C or higher. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in the precise overnight minimum due to Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait channeling and springtime variability in sea surface temperatures, which moderate extremes. Trader consensus near 50% for 11°C versus 12°C reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes, with lower probabilities for 7°C or below underscoring limited cold-air intrusion potential. Updated NWP guidance and MetService briefings will refine resolution criteria as the period approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$285End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models for Wellington on September 2 show overnight lows clustered near 11–13°C amid strengthening northwesterly flow, with ensembles indicating modest spread from variable cloud cover and frontal timing. Radiative cooling under clearer skies could push minima toward 11°C or slightly below, while increased wind mixing and marine air advection from the Tasman Sea favor 12°C or higher. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in the precise overnight minimum due to Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait channeling and springtime variability in sea surface temperatures, which moderate extremes. Trader consensus near 50% for 11°C versus 12°C reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes, with lower probabilities for 7°C or below underscoring limited cold-air intrusion potential. Updated NWP guidance and MetService briefings will refine resolution criteria as the period approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$285End Date
Sep 2, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models for Wellington on September 2 show overnight lows clustered near 11–13°C amid strengthening northwesterly flow, with ensembles indicating modest spread from variable cloud cover and frontal timing. Radiative cooling under clearer skies could push minima toward 11°C or slightly below, while increased wind mixing and marine air advection from the Tasman Sea favor 12°C or higher. Recent model runs highlight uncertainty in the precise overnight minimum due to Wellington’s exposure to Cook Strait channeling and springtime variability in sea surface temperatures, which moderate extremes. Trader consensus near 50% for 11°C versus 12°C reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes, with lower probabilities for 7°C or below underscoring limited cold-air intrusion potential. Updated NWP guidance and MetService briefings will refine resolution criteria as the period approaches.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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