Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to overnight lows near 6–9 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a weakening northwesterly flow that limits cold-air advection while allowing partial clearing for modest radiative cooling under the Southern Ocean maritime regime. Historical September minima average around 7 °C, but trader probabilities cluster tightly at 5–8 °C because small shifts in wind speed, dew-point depression, or residual cloud cover can alter minimum temperatures by 1–2 °C. The elevated share for 12 °C or higher reflects uncertainty over whether daytime warmth lingers into the early-morning minimum or if a brief southerly change arrives. Updated NWP runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 1?
12°C or higher 69%
6°C 27%
7°C 27%
8°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
2°C or below
2%
3°C
11%
4°C
11%
5°C
26%
6°C
27%
7°C
27%
8°C
27%
9°C
25%
10°C
5%
11°C
8%
12°C or higher
69%
12°C or higher 69%
6°C 27%
7°C 27%
8°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
2°C or below
$150 Vol.
2%
3°C
$145 Vol.
11%
4°C
$0 Vol.
11%
5°C
$0 Vol.
26%
6°C
$0 Vol.
27%
7°C
$0 Vol.
27%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
25%
10°C
$0 Vol.
5%
11°C
$10 Vol.
8%
12°C or higher
$10 Vol.
69%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to overnight lows near 6–9 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a weakening northwesterly flow that limits cold-air advection while allowing partial clearing for modest radiative cooling under the Southern Ocean maritime regime. Historical September minima average around 7 °C, but trader probabilities cluster tightly at 5–8 °C because small shifts in wind speed, dew-point depression, or residual cloud cover can alter minimum temperatures by 1–2 °C. The elevated share for 12 °C or higher reflects uncertainty over whether daytime warmth lingers into the early-morning minimum or if a brief southerly change arrives. Updated NWP runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$315End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to overnight lows near 6–9 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a weakening northwesterly flow that limits cold-air advection while allowing partial clearing for modest radiative cooling under the Southern Ocean maritime regime. Historical September minima average around 7 °C, but trader probabilities cluster tightly at 5–8 °C because small shifts in wind speed, dew-point depression, or residual cloud cover can alter minimum temperatures by 1–2 °C. The elevated share for 12 °C or higher reflects uncertainty over whether daytime warmth lingers into the early-morning minimum or if a brief southerly change arrives. Updated NWP runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$315End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from MetService and international forecasts points to overnight lows near 6–9 °C for Wellington on 1 September, driven by a weakening northwesterly flow that limits cold-air advection while allowing partial clearing for modest radiative cooling under the Southern Ocean maritime regime. Historical September minima average around 7 °C, but trader probabilities cluster tightly at 5–8 °C because small shifts in wind speed, dew-point depression, or residual cloud cover can alter minimum temperatures by 1–2 °C. The elevated share for 12 °C or higher reflects uncertainty over whether daytime warmth lingers into the early-morning minimum or if a brief southerly change arrives. Updated NWP runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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