Current forecasts from MetService, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles point to an overnight minimum of 8–10°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a ridge of high pressure promoting clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable-to-northerly winds. These conditions favor moderate radiational cooling after sunset, with the precise low hinging on wind speed—calm air allows greater surface heat loss while even light mixing raises the minimum by 1–2°C—and any late increase in low cloud. Ensemble spreads and historical September climatology (typical lows near 9–10°C) underpin the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C, with lower odds on colder outliers reflecting limited support for stronger cooling. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
4°C or below 53%
8°C 31%
11°C 29%
9°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
4°C or below
53%
5°C
17%
6°C
21%
7°C
23%
8°C
31%
9°C
29%
10°C
7%
11°C
29%
12°C
14%
13°C
13%
14°C or higher
16%
4°C or below 53%
8°C 31%
11°C 29%
9°C 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
4°C or below
$0 Vol.
53%
5°C
$0 Vol.
17%
6°C
$0 Vol.
21%
7°C
$0 Vol.
23%
8°C
$0 Vol.
31%
9°C
$0 Vol.
29%
10°C
$315 Vol.
7%
11°C
$0 Vol.
29%
12°C
$0 Vol.
14%
13°C
$0 Vol.
13%
14°C or higher
$0 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles point to an overnight minimum of 8–10°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a ridge of high pressure promoting clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable-to-northerly winds. These conditions favor moderate radiational cooling after sunset, with the precise low hinging on wind speed—calm air allows greater surface heat loss while even light mixing raises the minimum by 1–2°C—and any late increase in low cloud. Ensemble spreads and historical September climatology (typical lows near 9–10°C) underpin the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C, with lower odds on colder outliers reflecting limited support for stronger cooling. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$315End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from MetService, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles point to an overnight minimum of 8–10°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a ridge of high pressure promoting clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable-to-northerly winds. These conditions favor moderate radiational cooling after sunset, with the precise low hinging on wind speed—calm air allows greater surface heat loss while even light mixing raises the minimum by 1–2°C—and any late increase in low cloud. Ensemble spreads and historical September climatology (typical lows near 9–10°C) underpin the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C, with lower odds on colder outliers reflecting limited support for stronger cooling. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$315End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from MetService, ECMWF, and GFS ensembles point to an overnight minimum of 8–10°C in Wellington on September 14, driven by a ridge of high pressure promoting clear to partly cloudy skies and light variable-to-northerly winds. These conditions favor moderate radiational cooling after sunset, with the precise low hinging on wind speed—calm air allows greater surface heat loss while even light mixing raises the minimum by 1–2°C—and any late increase in low cloud. Ensemble spreads and historical September climatology (typical lows near 9–10°C) underpin the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 8°C, 9°C, and 10°C, with lower odds on colder outliers reflecting limited support for stronger cooling. Updated model runs and official MetService guidance ahead of the overnight period will be the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions