Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate a maximum temperature of 15–16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C at 66.5% implied probability. Mild spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, typical of mid-September climatology near the seasonal average high of 13–14°C, support this range, with limited model spread reducing upside risk to 17°C or higher. Stable pressure patterns and absence of strong southerly advection have kept recent model runs consistent, sustaining trader consensus around the 15–16°C outcomes while downweighting cooler or warmer extremes. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
Highest temperature in Wellington on September 14?
16°C 66%
15°C 20%
17°C 11%
14°C 5%
NEW
$15,370 Vol.
NEW
$15,370 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
5%
15°C
20%
16°C
66%
17°C
11%
18°C
1%
19°C or higher
<1%
16°C 66%
15°C 20%
17°C 11%
14°C 5%
NEW
$15,370 Vol.
NEW
$15,370 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
$573 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$573 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$79 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$64 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$1,308 Vol.
5%
15°C
$2,081 Vol.
20%
16°C
$7,376 Vol.
66%
17°C
$1,708 Vol.
11%
18°C
$875 Vol.
1%
19°C or higher
$350 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate a maximum temperature of 15–16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C at 66.5% implied probability. Mild spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, typical of mid-September climatology near the seasonal average high of 13–14°C, support this range, with limited model spread reducing upside risk to 17°C or higher. Stable pressure patterns and absence of strong southerly advection have kept recent model runs consistent, sustaining trader consensus around the 15–16°C outcomes while downweighting cooler or warmer extremes. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$15,370End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate a maximum temperature of 15–16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C at 66.5% implied probability. Mild spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, typical of mid-September climatology near the seasonal average high of 13–14°C, support this range, with limited model spread reducing upside risk to 17°C or higher. Stable pressure patterns and absence of strong southerly advection have kept recent model runs consistent, sustaining trader consensus around the 15–16°C outcomes while downweighting cooler or warmer extremes. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide final resolution inputs.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,370End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from agencies including MetService and international ensembles indicate a maximum temperature of 15–16°C in Wellington on September 14 under partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow, aligning with the market’s heavy weighting toward 16°C at 66.5% implied probability. Mild spring conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, typical of mid-September climatology near the seasonal average high of 13–14°C, support this range, with limited model spread reducing upside risk to 17°C or higher. Stable pressure patterns and absence of strong southerly advection have kept recent model runs consistent, sustaining trader consensus around the 15–16°C outcomes while downweighting cooler or warmer extremes. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide final resolution inputs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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