Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature near 69–71°F on August 4, driven by mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions with light southeast winds and no significant cold advection or frontal passage. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 68–72°F at Central Park and LaGuardia stations, while broader seasonal outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center note a lean toward above-normal temperatures for the month. Trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the 70–71°F bin reflects model agreement across recent runs and limited uncertainty in the short-range forecast window, with only modest downside risk to 68–69°F if skies clear more than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 4?
70-71°F 91%
68-69°F 9%
66-67°F 4%
64-65°F <1%
NEW
$11,566 Vol.
NEW
$11,566 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
4%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
91%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 91%
68-69°F 9%
66-67°F 4%
64-65°F <1%
NEW
$11,566 Vol.
NEW
$11,566 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
59°F or below
$469 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$165 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$432 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$527 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$1,034 Vol.
4%
68-69°F
$1,978 Vol.
9%
70-71°F
$761 Vol.
91%
72-73°F
$3,035 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$1,965 Vol.
<1%
76-77°F
$775 Vol.
<1%
78°F or higher
$424 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature near 69–71°F on August 4, driven by mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions with light southeast winds and no significant cold advection or frontal passage. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 68–72°F at Central Park and LaGuardia stations, while broader seasonal outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center note a lean toward above-normal temperatures for the month. Trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the 70–71°F bin reflects model agreement across recent runs and limited uncertainty in the short-range forecast window, with only modest downside risk to 68–69°F if skies clear more than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
Volume
$11,566End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature near 69–71°F on August 4, driven by mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions with light southeast winds and no significant cold advection or frontal passage. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 68–72°F at Central Park and LaGuardia stations, while broader seasonal outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center note a lean toward above-normal temperatures for the month. Trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the 70–71°F bin reflects model agreement across recent runs and limited uncertainty in the short-range forecast window, with only modest downside risk to 68–69°F if skies clear more than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,566End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 11:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service forecasts for New York City indicate a minimum temperature near 69–71°F on August 4, driven by mostly clear to partly cloudy overnight conditions with light southeast winds and no significant cold advection or frontal passage. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 68–72°F at Central Park and LaGuardia stations, while broader seasonal outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center note a lean toward above-normal temperatures for the month. Trader consensus at 90% implied probability for the 70–71°F bin reflects model agreement across recent runs and limited uncertainty in the short-range forecast window, with only modest downside risk to 68–69°F if skies clear more than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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