**Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance project overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s across New York City stations on August 30, 2026, establishing the 70-71°F bin as the overwhelming market consensus at 92.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects consistent output from the National Weather Service showing a humid airmass under southwest flow with minimal overnight cooling, keeping minimum temperatures near 70°F at Central Park and LaGuardia. Recent observations from late August confirm similar baseline conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would drop readings into the 60s. While the dominant outcome aligns with verified model consensus, a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or rapid clearing overnight could introduce modest additional cooling and shift the daily minimum lower, though such deviations remain low-probability given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 30?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 30?
70-71°F 94%
62-63°F 5.9%
68-69°F 5%
66-67°F 2.8%
$6,074 Vol.
$6,074 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
5%
70-71°F
94%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 94%
62-63°F 5.9%
68-69°F 5%
66-67°F 2.8%
$6,074 Vol.
$6,074 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
57°F or below
$93 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$93 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$921 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$1,109 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$393 Vol.
1%
66-67°F
$500 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$607 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$1,656 Vol.
94%
72-73°F
$436 Vol.
<1%
74-75°F
$133 Vol.
<1%
76°F or higher
$134 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance project overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s across New York City stations on August 30, 2026, establishing the 70-71°F bin as the overwhelming market consensus at 92.5% implied probability.**
This positioning reflects consistent output from the National Weather Service showing a humid airmass under southwest flow with minimal overnight cooling, keeping minimum temperatures near 70°F at Central Park and LaGuardia. Recent observations from late August confirm similar baseline conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would drop readings into the 60s. While the dominant outcome aligns with verified model consensus, a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or rapid clearing overnight could introduce modest additional cooling and shift the daily minimum lower, though such deviations remain low-probability given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,074End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance project overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s across New York City stations on August 30, 2026, establishing the 70-71°F bin as the overwhelming market consensus at 92.5% implied probability.**
This positioning reflects consistent output from the National Weather Service showing a humid airmass under southwest flow with minimal overnight cooling, keeping minimum temperatures near 70°F at Central Park and LaGuardia. Recent observations from late August confirm similar baseline conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would drop readings into the 60s. While the dominant outcome aligns with verified model consensus, a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or rapid clearing overnight could introduce modest additional cooling and shift the daily minimum lower, though such deviations remain low-probability given current atmospheric stability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,074End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance project overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s across New York City stations on August 30, 2026, establishing the 70-71°F bin as the overwhelming market consensus at 92.5% implied probability.** This positioning reflects consistent output from the National Weather Service showing a humid airmass under southwest flow with minimal overnight cooling, keeping minimum temperatures near 70°F at Central Park and LaGuardia. Recent observations from late August confirm similar baseline conditions without strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative cooling that would drop readings into the 60s. While the dominant outcome aligns with verified model consensus, a stronger-than-expected sea breeze or rapid clearing overnight could introduce modest additional cooling and shift the daily minimum lower, though such deviations remain low-probability given current atmospheric stability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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