Current ensemble forecasts for Moscow indicate the overnight low on August 31 will likely settle near 15–16°C amid variable cloud cover, light southwest winds, and possible patchy light rain. Persistent cloudiness limits radiational cooling by trapping longwave radiation, while mild southerly advection of warmer air suppresses the sharper drops typical under clear, calm conditions. Model consensus from sources like GFS and regional runs shows modest spread in the exact minimum, driven by differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Traders price 13–14°C outcomes slightly ahead of 16°C because localized cooling pockets or clearer breaks could still push readings lower than the central tendency, though historical late-August baselines and recent model stability keep extremes like 12°C or below less favored.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 31?
9°C or below 90%
15°C 49%
13°C 48%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
9°C or below
90%
10°C
45%
11°C
46%
12°C
47%
13°C
48%
14°C
47%
15°C
49%
16°C
48%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
1%
9°C or below 90%
15°C 49%
13°C 48%
16°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
9°C or below
$66 Vol.
90%
10°C
$60 Vol.
45%
11°C
$0 Vol.
46%
12°C
$0 Vol.
47%
13°C
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
47%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$10 Vol.
48%
17°C
$40 Vol.
1%
18°C
$60 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$236 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Moscow indicate the overnight low on August 31 will likely settle near 15–16°C amid variable cloud cover, light southwest winds, and possible patchy light rain. Persistent cloudiness limits radiational cooling by trapping longwave radiation, while mild southerly advection of warmer air suppresses the sharper drops typical under clear, calm conditions. Model consensus from sources like GFS and regional runs shows modest spread in the exact minimum, driven by differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Traders price 13–14°C outcomes slightly ahead of 16°C because localized cooling pockets or clearer breaks could still push readings lower than the central tendency, though historical late-August baselines and recent model stability keep extremes like 12°C or below less favored.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$472End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Moscow indicate the overnight low on August 31 will likely settle near 15–16°C amid variable cloud cover, light southwest winds, and possible patchy light rain. Persistent cloudiness limits radiational cooling by trapping longwave radiation, while mild southerly advection of warmer air suppresses the sharper drops typical under clear, calm conditions. Model consensus from sources like GFS and regional runs shows modest spread in the exact minimum, driven by differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Traders price 13–14°C outcomes slightly ahead of 16°C because localized cooling pockets or clearer breaks could still push readings lower than the central tendency, though historical late-August baselines and recent model stability keep extremes like 12°C or below less favored.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$472End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts for Moscow indicate the overnight low on August 31 will likely settle near 15–16°C amid variable cloud cover, light southwest winds, and possible patchy light rain. Persistent cloudiness limits radiational cooling by trapping longwave radiation, while mild southerly advection of warmer air suppresses the sharper drops typical under clear, calm conditions. Model consensus from sources like GFS and regional runs shows modest spread in the exact minimum, driven by differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture. Traders price 13–14°C outcomes slightly ahead of 16°C because localized cooling pockets or clearer breaks could still push readings lower than the central tendency, though historical late-August baselines and recent model stability keep extremes like 12°C or below less favored.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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