Current forecasts from NOAA-aligned models indicate Miami's minimum temperature on September 14 will likely fall in the upper 70s, with overnight lows around 77–82°F amid scattered thunderstorms, high humidity near 80–85%, and light easterly winds. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under a moist tropical air mass and partial cloud cover, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to drier nights. The close market split between the 78–79°F and 76–77°F bins reflects model uncertainty in exact overnight minimums, influenced by variable thunderstorm timing and sea-surface temperatures that sustain warmth. Historical September averages for Miami hover near 76–78°F, providing context for the current trader consensus on these tightly contested outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will offer the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Miami on September 14?
78-79°F 42%
76-77°F 36%
70-71°F 16%
72-73°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
69°F or below
4%
70-71°F
16%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
12%
76-77°F
36%
78-79°F
42%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
6%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
1%
88°F or higher
1%
78-79°F 42%
76-77°F 36%
70-71°F 16%
72-73°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
4%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
16%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
15%
74-75°F
$53 Vol.
12%
76-77°F
$123 Vol.
36%
78-79°F
$89 Vol.
42%
80-81°F
$20 Vol.
15%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
6%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$50 Vol.
1%
88°F or higher
$50 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA-aligned models indicate Miami's minimum temperature on September 14 will likely fall in the upper 70s, with overnight lows around 77–82°F amid scattered thunderstorms, high humidity near 80–85%, and light easterly winds. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under a moist tropical air mass and partial cloud cover, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to drier nights. The close market split between the 78–79°F and 76–77°F bins reflects model uncertainty in exact overnight minimums, influenced by variable thunderstorm timing and sea-surface temperatures that sustain warmth. Historical September averages for Miami hover near 76–78°F, providing context for the current trader consensus on these tightly contested outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will offer the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$385End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA-aligned models indicate Miami's minimum temperature on September 14 will likely fall in the upper 70s, with overnight lows around 77–82°F amid scattered thunderstorms, high humidity near 80–85%, and light easterly winds. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under a moist tropical air mass and partial cloud cover, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to drier nights. The close market split between the 78–79°F and 76–77°F bins reflects model uncertainty in exact overnight minimums, influenced by variable thunderstorm timing and sea-surface temperatures that sustain warmth. Historical September averages for Miami hover near 76–78°F, providing context for the current trader consensus on these tightly contested outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will offer the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$385End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from NOAA-aligned models indicate Miami's minimum temperature on September 14 will likely fall in the upper 70s, with overnight lows around 77–82°F amid scattered thunderstorms, high humidity near 80–85%, and light easterly winds. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling under a moist tropical air mass and partial cloud cover, keeping surface temperatures elevated compared to drier nights. The close market split between the 78–79°F and 76–77°F bins reflects model uncertainty in exact overnight minimums, influenced by variable thunderstorm timing and sea-surface temperatures that sustain warmth. Historical September averages for Miami hover near 76–78°F, providing context for the current trader consensus on these tightly contested outcomes. Updated model runs and National Weather Service briefings tomorrow morning will offer the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions